请帮我解读一下下面两个VAR模型数据结果。越详细越好。谢谢!疑问:第一是不是可以说明两组数据之间基本不存在相关性啊?
第一个:
| | LHBEA | LHBEA1706 |
| | | |
| LHBEA(-1) | 1.128114 | 0.052393 |
| | (0.06680) | (0.04473) |
| | [ 16.8891] | [ 1.17131] |
| | | |
| LHBEA(-2) | -0.022027 | -0.095553 |
| | (0.10099) | (0.06763) |
| | [-0.21811] | [-1.41286] |
| | | |
| LHBEA(-3) | -0.151319 | 0.060945 |
| | (0.06630) | (0.04440) |
| | [-2.28250] | [ 1.37277] |
| | | |
| LHBEA1706(-1) | 0.139721 | 1.047375 |
| | (0.09905) | (0.06633) |
| | [ 1.41056] | [ 15.7897] |
| | | |
| LHBEA1706(-2) | -0.165367 | 0.136516 |
| | (0.14430) | (0.09663) |
| | [-1.14603] | [ 1.41277] |
| | | |
| LHBEA1706(-3) | 0.011308 | -0.200942 |
| | (0.09955) | (0.06667) |
| | [ 0.11359] | [-3.01418] |
| | | |
| C | 0.169404 | 0.000653 |
| | (0.06129) | (0.04105) |
| | [ 2.76384] | [ 0.01592] |
| | | |
|
| R2 | 0.945290 | 0.980950 |
|
| 调整后的R2 | 0.943791 | 0.980428 |
|
| F-统计量 | 630.6508 | 1879.550 |
|
| 对数似然估计 | 496.3356 | 586.9567 |
|
| AIC信息 | -4.330404 | -5.132360 |
|
SC信息 | -4.224458 | -5.026415 |
|
第二个:
| | | |
| | DLSHEA | D2LSHEAF082017 | D2LSHEAF112017 |
| | | | |
DLSHEA(-1) | -0.009110 | -0.068809 | -0.005092 |
| | (0.08991) | (0.09821) | (0.12717) |
| | [-0.10133] | [-0.70062] | [-0.04004] |
| | | | |
| DLSHEA(-2) | -0.149779 | 0.157448 | 0.164078 |
| | (0.08933) | (0.09758) | (0.12636) |
| | [-1.67670] | [ 1.61348] | [ 1.29850] |
| | | | |
| DLSHEA(-3) | -0.095599 | 0.438836 | 0.430164 |
| | (0.08506) | (0.09291) | (0.12032) |
| | [-1.12395] | [ 4.72299]** | [ 3.57530]** |
| | | | |
| DLSHEA(-4) | 0.142582 | 0.031722 | -0.071872 |
| | (0.09151) | (0.09996) | (0.12944) |
| | [ 1.55816] | [ 0.31734] | [-0.55526] |
| | | | |
| D2LSHEAF082017(-1) | 0.052264 | -0.762427 | 0.304903** |
| | (0.09855) | (0.10765) | (0.13940) |
| | [ 0.53035] | [-7.08231] | [ 2.18726] |
| | | | |
| D2LSHEAF082017(-2) | -0.081134 | -0.849645 | 0.036828 |
| | (0.12031) | (0.13143) | (0.17019) |
| | [-0.67436] | [-6.46468] | [ 0.21640] |
| | | | |
| D2LSHEAF082017(-3) | 0.033885 | -0.453651 | 0.220503 |
| | (0.11280) | (0.12323) | (0.15957) |
| | [ 0.30039] | [-3.68146] | [ 1.38189] |
| | | | |
| D2LSHEAF082017(-4) | -0.093782 | -0.416690 | -0.146836 |
| | (0.08878) | (0.09698) | (0.12559) |
| | [-1.05632] | [-4.29646] | [-1.16921] |
| | | | |
| D2LSHEAF112017(-1) | -0.170470 | 0.222521** | -0.963505 |
| | (0.08260) | (0.09024) | (0.11685) |
| | [-2.06368] | [ 2.46597] | [-8.24582] |
| | | | |
| D2LSHEAF112017(-2) | -0.213478 | 0.291289** | -0.652775 |
| | (0.11857) | (0.12953) | (0.16772) |
| | [-1.80044] | [ 2.24890] | [-3.89200] |
| | | | |
| D2LSHEAF112017(-3) | -0.181609 | 0.255764** | -0.345221 |
| | (0.11793) | (0.12883) | (0.16682) |
| | [-1.53992] | [ 1.98529] | [-2.06940] |
| | | | |
| D2LSHEAF112017(-4) | -0.144385 | 0.185898** | -0.040833 |
| | (0.08147) | (0.08900) | (0.11524) |
| | [-1.77228] | [ 2.08884] | [-0.35433] |
| | | | |
| C | 0.002803 | -0.002015 | -0.001863 |
| | (0.00218) | (0.00238) | (0.00308) |
| | [ 1.28642] | [-0.84685] | [-0.60464] |
| | | | |
| R2 | 0.170255 | 0.507509 | 0.549036 |
| 调整后的R2 | 0.079737 | 0.453783 | 0.499840 |
| F-统计量 | 1.880899 | 9.446210 | 11.16017 |
| 对数似然估计 | 295.6818 | 284.8125 | 253.0250 |
| AIC信息 | -4.596451 | -4.419715 | -3.902846 |
| SC信息 | -4.299229 | -4.122492 | -3.605623 |
| | | | |
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