Table of Contents
Investment summary ........................................................................ 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Earnings revision.......................................................................................................................4
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................4
Key investment risks .................................................................................................................4
China theme: wait and see ............................................................... 5
MOU: played out before anything real arrives ..........................................................................5
Cross-strait M&A: near-term sentiment driver ..........................................................................6
Fundamental overview ..................................................................... 7
Loan book ................................................................................................................................7
Margin trend ...........................................................................................................................10
Top line ..................................................................................................................................13
Asset quality ...........................................................................................................................14
Investment thesis ............................................................................ 18
Fubon Financial (2881 TT, NT$38.7, Buy)................................................................................18
Cathay Financial (2882 TT, NT$60.3, Buy) ...............................................................................20
Yuanta Financial (2885 TT, NT$24.75, Hold)............................................................................22
Mega Financial (2886 TT, NT$20.25, Hold) .............................................................................24
Taishin Financial (2887 TT, NT$13.9, Sell) ...............................................................................26
Shin Kong Financial (2888 TT, NT$14.55, Hold) ......................................................................28
SinoPac Financial (2890 TT, NT$13.4, Sell) .............................................................................30
Chinatrust Financial (2891 TT, NT$21.8, Hold) ........................................................................32
First Financial (2892 TT, NT$20.55, Buy).................................................................................34
Major FHC’s 3Q/9M09 earnings ..................................................... 36
Appendix A – Chart suite ................................................................ 38