Table of Contents
The day after tomorrow.................................................................... 3
Beyond the economic crisis.............................................................. 7
The turnaround potential.................................................................. 8
Are Turkish banks overvalued? ...................................................... 10
Stock ideas: Post-crisis landscape ................................................. 12
What if a rate hike cycle comes earlier? ........................................ 19
SECTOR ANALYTICS....................................................................... 20
Where do we go from here? ........................................................... 21
The valuation methodology............................................................ 30
Potential drivers and challenges .................................................... 31
Beyond the crisis: The value drivers .............................................. 33
Loan structures: Where to focus? .................................................. 35
Have interest margins peaked?...................................................... 43
Fee generation abilities................................................................... 50
Addressing cost efficiencies ........................................................... 53
NPL collection capabilities.............................................................. 55
Turnaround Scorecard .................................................................... 57
Banking in an era of tighter monetary policy................................ 60
Sector fundamentals at a glance.................................................... 63
BANKS SECTION ............................................................................. 65
Akbank - Valuations appear to be compressed...................................... 66
Bank Asya - Bottom-line earnings prove defensive ................................ 70
Garanti Bank - Well-positioned to exploit the recovery cycle environment74
Halkbank - Stay tuned, more to come................................................... 78
Isbank - Playing defence behind the market growth................................ 82
Vakifbank - Not at the most attractive levels......................................... 86
Yapi Kredi Bank - Compelling proxy for a stable interest rate era ........... 90