Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 4
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................4
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................5
Risks ........................................................................................................................................5
Structural change at cyclical bottom............................................... 6
Structure change for Taiwan – matters at the cyclical bottom..................................................6
Chemicals: bottomed out, especially for specialty....................................................................9
Refinery: capacity addition outpaces demand growth into 2010 ............................................20
Buy Nan Ya Plastics (1303.TW) and Formosa Plastics (1301.TW)...........................................22
Target prices based on SoTP ..................................................................................................23
Additional valuation benchmarks ............................................................................................28
Global/regional peer valuation comparison .............................................................................30
Appendix A....................................................................................... 32
Formosa Plastics.............................................................................. 36
Nan Ya Plastics ................................................................................ 56
Formosa Chems & Fibre.................................................................. 72
Formosa Petrochemical .................................................................. 86