【出版时间及名称】：2009年10月香港地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：HSBC（汇丰银行）
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
     Office rents on track for 10-15% growth
in 2010; vacancy rate to rise by 0-100bp
to 5.5-6.5% in Central by end-2009
􀀗 At trough rental levels, stocks should
trade at mid-cycle NAV disc valuation
􀀗 Upgrade Hysan and Great Eagle to
OW(V) and stay N(V) on HKL
    Rent stabilization amid still fragile occupier market.
While office rents in Central have stabilized in 3Q09 at
HKD65/sq.ft., largely flat q-o-q, it appears that vacancy in
the district has continued to trend up from 4.6% to 5.5%,
indicating a still fragile occupier market. From a demand
perspective, it appears that ‘AAA’ grade premises in Central
are highly sought after, while rental differential and new
completions in Kowloon East will continue to take market
demand from other districts.
    Stocks should trade at mid-cycle NAV discount levels. At
this juncture, where physical property market rents seem to
have bottomed and the run-up in share prices seems to have
pre-empted the beginning of the next rental up-cycle, our
analysis indicates that landlords should trade at mid-cycle
valuation, based on the historical relationship between NAV
discounts and share price performance since 1991.
    Two key themes in anticipation: We believe investors
trying to get ahead of the game will focus on two key themes
(1) potential cap rate expansion and (2) the magnitude of the
upcoming rental upcycle. Our belief is that asset valuation
would at best stay flat at the current level, as rental upsides
will be offset by expansion in cap rates.
    Actionable idea: Hongkong Land (HKL)’s share price has
started to reflect that Central’s office market downturn is
over, despite fragile occupier markets. While equity prices do
in general run ahead of fundamentals, we believe the current
rally in HKL shares has gone too far and by too much in
advance. On the other hand, both Great Eagle and Hysan are
still trading at sizable NAV discounts and look more
attractive relative to HKL’s valuation. On the back of this, we
upgrade Great Eagle and Hysan to OW(V) and stay N(V) on
HKL. We are OW(V) on both The Link and C-REIT.