【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国医疗行业研究报告
        【作者】：Jefferies & Company
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
Initiating coverage of the Life Science Research Supplies sector with
Buy recommendations on Agilent, Becton Dickinson, Bio-Rad, Life
Technologies, Millipore, and Mettler-Toledo. We have Hold ratings on
Sigma-Aldrich and Thermo Fisher Scientific.
Key Points
• Mind the gap in pharmaceutical supply markets. We forecast
pharmaceutical and biotechnology R&D spending will decline 4% in
2009 (down materially from +5% in 2008 and +11% in 2007), owing
to the numerous challenges facing the therapeutics industry. While
commercial R&D spending is expected to return to modest growth
in 2010 (+1%), we forecast such end-markets will remain
problematic for Life Science Research Suppliers for the foreseeable
future.
• Gov't / academic markets should shine. We view U.S.
government actions to significantly increase basic scientific
research funding levels as a powerful hedge against weak
conditions in the commercial businesses of life science research
suppliers. Our comprehensive analysis of the impacts of the FY10
U.S. government budget proposal and the U.S. economic stimulus
package (~$30 billion in ancillary funding opportunities) suggests
incremental growth catalysts of 2% to 3% to the industry's
composite organic revenue levels in 2010. Our analysis of each
NIH instrumentation-specific FY09 grant application identified
Bruker, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Becton Dickinson, and
Illumina as among the largest beneficiaries of initial ARRA and NIH
awards.
• Secular & cyclical forces in applied industrial markets should
unite. Efforts to improve public safety are intensifying, especially in
the U.S. and Asia, where massive fiscal stimulus plans are
maturing, which should offer sustainable catalysts to those
businesses appropriately leveraged to such dynamics in 2010.
Rebounding capacity utilization rates should boost demand in basic
materials markets beginning in mid-2010.
• Valuations remain attractive — more upside ahead. Despite
compelling secular growth prospects for and strong and resilient
cash flow characteristics inherent in nearly every Life Science
Research Supplier business model in our formal coverage universe,
the sector (+63%) has only modestly outperformed the S&P 500
(+55%) since March 2009. While clearly not a relative performance
disaster scenario by any means, we find it notable that the sector's
relative performance (+8%) thus far this business cycle is notably
inferior to what it was at this point in the prior cycle (+16%). The
Life Science Research Supplier index outperformed the S&P 500
by 90% (+185% versus +95%) over the prior business cycle.

Executive Summary: Seeking Absolute Value 3
Valuation Summary & Outlook 5
Economic Profit Analysis 8
Traditional Valuation Framework & Sector Performance Perspective 10
Summary of Views on the Outlooks for Major End-Markets 11
Competitive Positioning 13
Risks 14
Industry Overview 15
Pharmaceutical & Biotech R&D Spending Trends Expected to Remain Weak Through 2010 15
Applied Industrial Markets: Secular and Cyclical Forces Poised to Work Together 22
Government & Academic Markets to Shine in 2010 26
M&A Resurgence: Sector consolidation theme still in play 32
Valuation and Short Interest 35