高盛Goldman Sachs - The BRICs as Drivers of Global Consumption

未来50年，金砖四国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）可能会成为世界经济中更加重要的推动力量。我们对2050年以前金砖四国的GDP增长、人均收入和汇率变动做出了预测。

As the G3 countries face a slow and difficult recovery, final demandwill need to rise in the rest of the world to sustain global growth inthe future. The world can look to the BRICs to increase theircontribution to global domestic demand through higher consumption. Thismonth we examine this possibility through consumption trends in theBRICs.

Real retail sales in the BRICs, with the exception of Russia, have held up much better than in the advanced economies over the past two years, and we expect this trend to continue. Our consumption growth forecasts imply that, by 2010, the BRICs will contribute almost half of global consumption growth. This month, we look at the individual components responsible for this resilience. In China, consumer-based components (consumer products, food and beverages) have contributed the most, compared with other components, such as materials and equipment. Auto sales have picked up markedly in both China and India. In Brazil, retail sales have recovered substantially, thanks to government tax breaks, monetary and fiscal policy stimulus, and the resumption of credit lending to households. On the other hand, the sluggish retail sales report from Russia is mainly due to the sharp decline in non-food products.