算是昨天发的Deutsche Bank Macro Highlights的完整slides吧,英文41页:
Key messages from this presentation:
1. Tightening of fiscal policy is the most underestimated risk in 2018
- Fiscal spending is a key driving force behind the economic cycle. Its growth is set to slow in 2018.
2. Unprecedented wealth effect from housing market
- Value of residential housing went up by RMB 49trn (60% of GDP) in 2017. It offers big opportunities as well as risks, for China and the world.
3. We are more worried about inflation than consensus
- Consensus failed to forecast high inflation in the past.
4. Automation may be the next “disruptive innovation” in China
- Government support will likely pick up in the next five years.