【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月全球生物燃料行业研究报告
        【作者】：加拿大丰业银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：42
        【目录或简介】：


Renewable Food- and Non-Food-Based Fuels
We are pleased to introduce our new Biofuels Outlook. We have opted to highlight this topic in a standalone
report as food-based fuel demand growth was a critical component of the reason fertilizer
stocks soared 500%-1,500% in the last cycle and grain prices tripled. About 33% of the incremental
2006-2008 global food demand was for food for fuel (Mosaic CEO). U.S. corn-based ethanol demand also
went ballistic as at May 5, 2005, in the U.S., when the U.S. government stopped protecting oil and gas
refiners and distributors from legal liability if they spilled gasoline containing methanol-based MTBE
(methyl tert-butyl ether). That led to ethanol prices spiking from $2/gal to $5/gal temporarily, and also led
to the surge of U.S. ethanol IPOs, including Aventine, Pacific Ethanol, and VeraSun. They all went
bankrupt in 2009 due to poor margins, leverage, and/or poor corn procurement or hedging practices.
Their mostly corn-based ethanol plants are now running as margins have improved and/or they have been
sold to others for as low as 25% replacement cost new (Valero bought seven ethanol plants from VeraSun
at that price).
Fertilizer analysts are now forced to understand the future of biofuels if they are to accurately
assess the demand for food and therefore fertilizer. For more information on Scotia’s effort to do so,
please refer to our January 2009 report titled The Choice of Next-Generation Biofuels. Our November 24,
2009, Bioenergy Day 2009 Conference will feature Canada’s biggest renewable biofuels and renewable
bio-power players. The agenda can be found in Appendix 1.
Until 2012, generation one food-based biofuels still have good growth prospects of about 10%-
15% annual growth levels. Peak 2005-2008 growth levels were 30% per year for ethanol and 60% per
year for biodiesel. We and others believe that generation one biofuels may see their growth profiles ease
further towards zero after 2012 and/or possibly go negative after 2015. We have yet to see one
statement from or have one interview with an oil and gas company that will distribute biofuels
that support food-based fuels on a sustained basis. They are all after second-generation, more
sustainable fuel breakthroughs and are supporting myriad second-generation technologies. Active oil
and gas biofuels leaders include Shell, Chevron, BP, and more recently ExxonMobil. This could
negatively weigh on fertilizer-supported food demand for generation one biofuels, and therefore
on fertilizer stock valuations.
Exhibit 1 shows that the U.S. use of corn-based
food for fuel may peak around 2014, and then
start to decline. The cap on U.S. food-based
ethanol is still 15 billion gallons per year by 2012
or 5 billion bushels of corn feedstock. After that,
the U.S. is hoping that second- and third-generation
fuels will add another 21 billion gallons per year to
a total of 36 billion gallons per year as mandated by
the 2007 U.S. Energy Bill, versus less than 100
million gallons today. So what will these fuels be
made from and how much fertilizer will they
need, if any?
We already know that biofuel made from garbage, dead or alive trees, wheat waste, corn waste, and
jatropha trees does not require fertilizer. In the case of algae, no potash is required but nitrogen and
phosphate are. The question is where these nutrients for algae come from. In waste effluent streams, algae
can clean non-potable water and get all their nutrition from it. However, those low-hanging-fruit algae
opportunities are not going to last long once algae biofuel production turns material.

Contents
Renewable Food- and Non-Food-Based Fuels 2
Ethanol 4
E85 Ethanol-Blended Gasoline Ex Brazil Tiny 12
Biodiesel 13
Algae Biofuel 17
Biomass 25
Advanced Biofuels 26
Bioenergy Conclusions 34
Appendix 1 – Bioenergy Day 2009: “Bioenergy Opportunities” 35
Appendix 2 – Algae Companies 36