高盛 China: Portfolio Strategy 2010 corporate survey: A full recovery
【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月19日
        【作者】：高盛
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：11
【目录或简介】：  Survey results and investment implications
During our 2010 China Investment Frontier Conference, which was held
in Beijing in early Nov, we sent out a survey to over 110 listed
companies to gather bottom-up, forward-looking data points in 3 key
areas—growth, operating, and financing/investing.

Growth: Overall, the respondents are expecting high-teen revenue
growth in 2010, driven by volume growth and potential ASP increase.
Profit margins could expand slightly on the back of improving capacity
utilization and higher working capital turnover.

Operating: (1) Wages are expected by the companies to increase across
the board, which should bode well for consumption growth. We still
favor our “Go West” CAT and consumer baskets as the way to gain
exposure to China’s consumer story. (2) Working capital situation has
improved amid a faster A/R turn and the ongoing destocking process.  

Financing/investing: Most companies feel access to bank lending is
easier now than 3-6 months ago and they expect to increase capex by
around 10%. The results also show that developers and IPPs are keen to
expand, which is supportive to private FAI and gov’t revenue growth.

Key theme to notice: Over 80% of respondents think that costs relating
to environment protection will increase next year, and the trend of
rising spending is likely to extend on policy tailwinds. Stocks in the
China Water 2 CAT could be a sensible vehicle to trade this theme.