The downturn has also confirmed that the continental model has some strengths. France has a comparatively efficient public sector, thanks in part to years of investment in better roads, more high-speed trains, nuclear energy and even the restoration of old cathedrals (see article). Nor is it just a matter of pumping in ever more taxpayers’ cash. By any measure France’s health system delivers better value for money than America’s costlier one. Germany has not just looked after its public finances more prudently than others; its export-driven model has forced its companies to hold down costs, making them competitive not only in Europe but also globally. By design as well as luck, much of continental Europe avoided the debt-fuelled housing bubbles that popped spectacularly in Britain and America (though Spain did not, see article).
经济衰退也确认欧洲大陆国家的模式具有更多的优点。法国的公共部分较其他国家更加高效,这部分得益于多年来在更好的道路、更多的高速铁路、核能、甚至修复年久的大教堂上的投资。这也不光是注入更多纳税人的金钱的问题。以任何标准衡量,法国的医疗体系都比美国更昂贵的医疗体系性价比更高。德国不仅比其他各国更谨慎地管理公共财政;德国的出口推动经济的模式迫使该国企业降低成本,从而不光在欧洲更在全球范围内具有竞争力。既是源自设计,也是运气使然,大多数欧洲大陆国家都避免了在英美轰然破灭的由债务导致的房地产泡沫(尽管西班牙是个例外)。
But will it last? The strengths that have made parts of continental Europe relatively resilient in recession could quickly emerge as weaknesses in a recovery. For there is a price to pay for more security and greater job protection: a slowness to adjust and innovate that means, in the long run, less growth. The rules against firing that stave off sharp rises in unemployment may mean that fewer jobs are created in new industries. Those generous welfare states that preserve people’s incomes tend to blunt incentives to take new work. That large state, which helps to sustain demand in hard times, becomes a drag on dynamic new firms when growth resumes. The latest forecasts are that the United States and Britain could rebound from recession faster than most of continental Europe.
但是这能否持久呢?这些使得部分欧洲大陆国家在经济衰退中相对坚韧的制度优点在一场经济复苏中可能很快成为弱点。这是因为获得更大的经济安全和更强的就业保护就得付出代价:调整和创新缓慢,在长远看来这意味着更加微弱的增长。那些反对裁员的规则尽管避免了失业率的陡升,却可能意味着在新产业中产生的工作机会较少。那些慷慨的福利国家尽管保持了人们的收入水平,却也扼杀了寻找新工作的动机。大政府虽然在经济困难的时候能够帮助维持需求,在经济重新开始增长的时候却拖累了充满活力的新企业。最新的预计表明美国和英国可能比大多数欧洲大陆国家更快地从经济衰退中复苏。
Individual countries have specific failings of their own. Even if it did everything else right, Germany’s overreliance on exports at the expense of consumer spending has proved a grave weakness in a downturn (see article); its banks also look weak. The rate of youth unemployment in France is over 20% and it can be twice as high in the notorious banlieues where Muslim populations are concentrated. Italy and Spain have seen sharp rises in unit labour costs and their labour-productivity growth has stalled or gone into reverse. It may not be long before the fickle Mr Sarkozy is re-reading his Adam Smith.
不同国家都有自身特定的不足。即便其他各方面都无可挑剔,德国牺牲居民消费换来的对于出口的过度依赖在经济衰退中被证明是一个严重的弱点;德国各家银行看起来也很虚弱。法国的青年失业率超过20%,而在臭名昭著的穆斯林人口聚居的“市郊地区”这一数字更可能翻番。意大利和西班牙的单位劳动力成本显著上升而劳动生产率增长却停滞不前甚至出现倒退。也许不久之后变幻无常的萨科奇就会重读亚当•斯密的著作了。
Not what you aim for, but how you do it
不是你的目标是什么,而是你如何实现目标
If there is to be an argument about which model is best, then this newspaper stands firmly on the side of the liberal Anglo-Saxon model—not least because it leaves more power in the hands of individuals rather than the state. But the truth is that the governments on both sides of the intellectual divide could go a long way to making their models work better, without changing their underlying beliefs.
如果非要就哪种模式最好做一番争论的话,那么本刊坚定地站在自由主义的盎格鲁-萨克逊模式一边——尤其是因为这一模式将更多的权力交到个人而不是国家手中。然而事实是居于这一理性分歧两边的政府都有在不改变其根本性信念的情况下长足地改善他们各自模式的空间。
On the continental side, there is nothing especially socially cohesive about labour laws that favour insiders over outsiders, or rules that make the costs of starting a business excessive. Even Colbert might admit that Europe’s tax burdens are too onerous today, particularly since they are likely to have to rise in the future to meet the looming cost of the continent’s rapidly ageing populations.
在欧洲大陆这边,无论是那些偏袒内部人员而排斥外来人员的劳动法,还是那些使得开办企业面临过高成本的法规,都缺乏特别具有社会凝聚力的成分。甚至柯尔伯都可能承认今天欧洲的纳税负担过于繁重,尤其是当未来可能进一步提高税率来满足欧洲大陆迅速老化的人口所带来的迫在眉睫的开销。
For the liberals, even if the cycle swings back in their direction, the financial crisis and the recession have shown up defects in the way they too implemented their model. Getting regulation right matters as much as freeing up markets; an efficient public sector may count as much as an efficient private one; public investment in transport, schools and health care, done well, can pay dividends. The pecking order may change, but pragmatism and efficiency will always count.
对于自由主义者来说,即便经济周期回到有利于他们的方向,金融危机和经济衰退也已经揭露了在他们执行经济模式的方法中存在的缺陷。纠正监管体系跟放松对市场的监管一样重要;一个高效的公共部门跟一个高效的私人部门一样重要;交通、学校和医疗方面的公共投资如果做得好的话就能带来收益。权势等级或许会改变,但是实用主义和效率永远都占有重要的地位。