20:00 GMT 23 November 2009
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Q3 GDP is likely to be revised down to 2.8% with Q4 heading for around 3% too We continue to expect a slowdown in 2010 but now forecast 2011-12 to be much stronger Core inflation will trend down though we now see the trough at 0.5% rather than zero We have put back our expectation for Fed tightening to Q3 2011 from Q1 2011 Emerging countries cannot expect help from the Fed in avoiding bubbles