【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月台湾证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：

A strong 3Q triggered profit-taking, but
investors are likely to return
􀀗 The pending individual visa scheme and
Kinmen casino referendum should
revive interest in tourism
􀀗 Maintain overweight and reiterate yearend
TAIEX target of 7,800
Expect investors to return. Taiwan had an upbeat 3Q09
earnings season. Both foreign and local investors took
profits, as TAIEX approached our target of 7,800. Unlike
other markets, Taiwan will stay busy towards the end of the
year, as cross-Strait officials are wrapping up the financial
memorandum of understanding (FMOU), kicking off the
Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)
discussions, and hosting the fourth round of cross-Strait
negotiations. True, these catalysts will buoy sentiment but
are well in the price. But there is one hidden treasure that we
think investors have overlooked – cross-Strait tourism.
Why cross-Strait tourism? Why now? Cross-Strait tourism
did not encounter huge success initially because of the
complicated visa application procedure and expensive
airfares. However, the government’s continued efforts to
promote cross-Strait tourism are finally bearing fruit –
mainland tourist arrivals have increased four-fold in 2009 yt-
d. There are talks of rolling out the individual visitor
scheme in Taiwan, in the hope of successfully attracting
tourists, just as it did in Hong Kong. Coupled with the
Kinmen casino referendum going to the polls in December,
we expect revived interest in cross-Strait tourism.
Our equity strategy favours tech and tourism. Given the
busy cross-Strait agenda, we are confident TAIEX will meet
our 7,800 target by year-end. We include a list of tourismrelated
stocks on page 13. We also stay overweight on tech
and upgrade the handsets segment based on the stronger-thanexpected
3Q. We are neutral on financials as it is running out
of catalysts and underweight on materials due to oversupply.
Tech additions to our Best Ideas. We add our favourite
handset components maker, Silitech, to our top buy list. We
add Nanya PCB to our top sell list because its partner, NGK
Spark Plug, is exiting the Intel CPU substrate business,
impacting about 25% of Nanya PCB’s revenue.