2009.9
UBS
pdf
62

Contents page
Summary and investment case 3
Changing coal dynamics 6
— Demand shift towards China and India.................................................................6
— China supply changes..........................................................................................8
China coal model updates 10
— China coal arbitrage impacts global prices .........................................................12
— China’s rising regional market share ..................................................................15
Coking coal markets are tightest 18
— Estimating North Asian demand recovery...........................................................19
— Estimating supply for North Asia and China........................................................20
Thermal coal: short-term weakness 22
— Reason for seasonal weakness..........................................................................22
European demand concerns 24
— The gas coal switch............................................................................................24
— The clean dark spread........................................................................................25
India takes it all 26
— Positive longer-term demand outlook .................................................................27
Australian infrastructure 29
— Port capacity expansion .....................................................................................29
— Overview of Queensland ports ...........................................................................31
— Overview of New South Wales ports ..................................................................33
Oil and exchange rates 35