【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月欧洲旅游酒店行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：
Turning more cautious on tour operators. Demand is
still weak, costs pressures remain, and capacity is
getting harder to cut. Cash generation has been poor
and net debt has been growing. Debt refinancing needs
are likely to be more expensive than the market thinks.
The combination of these leads to 13-14% EPS cuts.
Operational challenges. TT and TCG have benefited
from substantial merger synergies, which are now
running out; significant capacity cuts, which we think are
getting harder to deliver; and fuel hedges, which are now
at less favourable rates. External risks are also growing.
We show new analysis in this report of how low-cost
carriers are expanding into medium-haul markets.
TCG’s above-average margins look most at risk to us.
Cash generation weak, debt refinancing a risk for
TCG. We have been disappointed by the level of cash
generation and growing debts, particularly at TCG,
driven by weak working capital, adverse FX and high
exceptionals. TT’s recent £490m refinancing takes 7%
off our EPS forecasts. TCG has double this level debt to
refinance and, we think it may get close to its covenant
of 3.25x debt/EBITDAR when this steps down next year.
TUI AG a cheaper way to play tour operators. TT
offers a more favourable risk/reward balance than TCG,
and we like its scope for margin recovery and specialist
holiday expansion. A better way to play TT, in our view,
could be via parent TUI AG, as at the current share price
investors get its