【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月欧洲汽车行业研究报告
        【作者】：法国兴业银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
Contents
3 Sector anatomy – presentation of the sector
4 Sector anatomy – performance and valuation
5 Key recommendations
5 More optimism on ratings: the worst is over
5 Assumptions and valuations remain cautious
6 Preferred stocks: the luxury car makers
7 Hold ratings on mixed situations
9 Government incentive programmes have boosted car demand
9 More and more incentive programmes in Europe during 2009
10 Growing impact on the car market
11 After decent 2009 figures, negative payback to kick in from 2010e, but positive factors all the same
11 Negatives: obvious opportunity gains for many customers
11 The 1994-1995 French experience is not a good example…
12 …but we see some positives
15 SG model on scrapping incentives impact
15 Market assumptions
16 Assumptions on segments
17 New forecasts for European car markets
17 2009 European car sales close to 2008 figures
17 We see a 6% decline in sales in 2010e despite a second set of scrapping incentives
17 2011: economic recovery to finally kick in, giving the mix a lift
20 Mix effect: very negative in 2009e, then positive in 2010e
20 Deteriorated product mix in Europe in 2009
20 Improvements expected in 2010e
21 European car manufacturers: strong deterioration at VW, PSA and Renault
22 Outlook for the car manufacturers
22 Groups that benefited from scrapping incentives
24 Groups that did not benefit from scrapping incentives
25 2010 results: some favourable factors
25 Production should exceed the 2009 level
26 Positive product mix impact
26 Lower fixed costs
27 H2 09 results will be a good base for 2010: we expect the car makers to report profitable operations
28 Next events
28 Next publications
28 Potential impact on share prices
29 Equity Strategy: we keep our neutral stance on the sector
29 Is good macro news already discounted?