【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：星展银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：27
        【目录或简介】：
Re-rating catalyst ahead
• Commercial property market to recover gradually in
2010 on the back of economic recovery
• Office and hotel will outperform retail segment
• Shanghai will outperform other cities in the sector
• We foresee re-rating catalyst for commercial plays.
We like Franshion, SOHO, Shimao and Shui On Land
Outlook turns brighter. We performed a detailed analysis
on the office, retail and hotels sectors in China’s key cities.
Rentals in these cities have shown signs of improvement
driven by pick up in leasing demand. The occupancy rate
and room rates for hotels have also begun to trend up. We
conclude that we are likely seeing the bottom of rental
cycles in many cities. While supply side pressure still exists
to delay a strong rental recovery, we expect capital value
uptrend to continue. In our view, strong owner-occupier
purchases, entry of insurance funds, and return of
institutional investors will continue to push up capital value
appreciation.
Office and hotel sectors are to outperform. Office and
hotel sectors were hardest hit by the global financial crisis.
As a result, its recovery is more obvious than the retail
sector. Our analysis showed the supply pressure in the
office sector might be overstated as strong owner-occupier
purchases and pre-leasing commitment have substantially
reduced the leasing spaces available to the market over the
next two years. Hotel sector is also on the verge of recovery
driven by pickup in demand from business and leisure
travellers. In the retail sector, we expect malls with massmarket
focus to outperform those with luxury focus in the
near term.
Shanghai to lead the recovery. With Shanghai’s effort to
develop itself into a global financial center and the arrival of
World Expo and World Disney Theme Park, we expect the
city to see a good recovery in office, retail and hotel sectors,
outperforming other tier I cities.
Commercial plays to catch up on share price
performance. Commercial plays have underperformed the
market over the past six months given investors’ concerns
on the weak rental market. With the bottoming out of the
commercial real estate market, we expect share prices of
commercial plays to be re-rated. We like Franshion, SOHO
China, Shimao and Shui On Land.