【出版时间及名称】：2010年亚洲金融行业展望
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：106
        【目录或简介】：
Financials’ outperformance to continue. Asian financials outperformed
the broader markets in 2008 and again in 2009 YTD. We expect a repeat in
2010 on a macro sweet spot – accelerating GDP, negative real rates,
continuing government stimulus and soaring money supply.
■ Monetary policy the key variable in 2010. Our analysis shows that bank
stocks kept rallying through the initial rate hikes in the past and we found a
far stronger correlation with GDP growth i.e., bank stocks can continue
performing until the successive rate hikes start to hurt GDP growth. Starting
in 1H10, we expect rate increases to be gradual and the normalisation might
take almost two years before tightening begins.
■ Switch from Korean to Indonesian banks. The best performers this year,
Korean banks, are projected to suffer structurally weaker profitability, along
with single-digit revenue growth. In contrast, Indonesia has mid-teen topline
momentum, the smallest credit-to-GDP penetration in Asia, an economy far
less dependent on external demand and banks that earn very high ROEs.
■ Continue to like Chinese banks + insurers and Indian state-owned
banks. China has the best GDP growth, banks the best ROEs in Asia and
insurers the best VNB growth – our top picks are CCB, ICBC, China Life and
CTIH. Indian government banks offer mid- to high-teen ROEs but half the
valuation multiples of private banks and strong earnings trend in the medium
term – our top picks are second rung names such as PNB and BOB.