昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读312小时

1. 今天阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接:
IBM PM Center of Excellence — Staying Relevant
https://www.pmi.org/learning/tra ... rojectified-podcast

2. 今天阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录:

Jim Boland
Yes, I think back 21 years ago, when as we were transforming and operating at scale, there was a lot of time and investment put in place to develop, I would call large industrialised methods and tooling, that would be able to scale to the size of IBM and to the volume of projects we're doing. I think now, the challenge is more around pace and is more around the rate of change that's happening in the marketplace. So I think one of our biggest challenges now is that perhaps 21 years ago, when we might have said, look, it's gonna take 18 months to develop a methodology, a common methodology, instead of process and work practices that we can roll out across all IBM. Now, we need to do something similar in a matter of weeks, or at the most months. So we're adopting much of an agile type way of working, we're moving from a transformation phase into an acceleration phase. So we are, the biggest challenge I see is that we have to change with the organisation and of course, with the world and how do we stay relevant? So the solutions of 21 years ago, some of them are absolutely still relevant today. So if you were running a project and you need help on how to manage stakeholders or financial planning, or scope, etc., of course, those work practices, they still remain relevant, but we need to build in much more agile ways of working. We need to enable our project managers who are entering the marketplace today, how do we make them successful, so how do we give them, and sometimes it's instead of selling them for example, historically you could say, let's take all our project managers and put them on a five day classroom course, that's just one example around education. Now you deliver that in 15, 30 minute soundbites. At the same time and parallel to continually helping them to learn and to develop and improve, but I think it's the rate and pace of change and then, of course, IBM is front and centre in this new world of digital transformation and digital disruption. Again, some of the projects we're working on today, our project managers are change agents, so they're in front of the customer and they're trying to help the customer understand their own journeys, so quite often customers are coming to us and saying, look, we need to adopt, we need to change, we need to very much bring new offerings to our customers and they're looking to IBM for help, of course and quite often, the project managers are there at the forefront and they're helping design those solutions, so they're being those change agents as well. So it's trying to balance in today's world, it's trying to balance and get the right balance between some of the traditional skills and expertise with what I call the new learnings and the new age skills, etc. So, and doing that at a pace that is very different to what it was 20 years ago.
Yes, it sure is and we need to bring the tools and the techniques and the work practices, we need to enable our project managers to succeed in that everyone and I think that's one of our biggest challenges. If I give you another one of the other things we're grappling with in IBM and I think in society at large, particularly in the more mature markets, so the likes of North America and Europe and Japan and a place like that, we're losing a lot of experience, so you have a lot of people who are coming to retirement age in the project management profession, who have 30, 40 years' experience. How do we make project management sexy? How do we make it cool and relevant to b who's leaving college today, who's 21 and wants to get into digital design, or IX or cloud or cognitive? How do we help them to, A, make project management successful, but even if they want to dedicate their careers to project management, they will still be able to manage projects. So we still need to develop their skills and learnings, etc. So I think part of the challenge we have is that if we fail, I think at some stage in the future is where it would actually come home to roost and that's the challenge, I think, we always have, is that tomorrow, or Monday or Tuesday, the company and the organisation will continue to work, but in five years' time, or ten years' time, when you look at some of the percentages of retirement age of our most experienced people, together with the challenges we have about attracting new entrants in the marketplace, to me it would turn into a ticking time bomb and so I think it's more of, you know, and the great thing about IBM and the senior executives in the organisation, they recognise that, so even though my success factors and my time frames are not measure in days, they're measure in months and years, it's great that that the organisation has the foresight to actually look that far ahead and make sure we avoid that Armageddon.
Yes, I think you need to sense check pretty frequently right, and there's balance and counterbalance, so we would have a number of different professions that operate within the IBM corporation and one of those, for example, would be the agile academy and quite often I look at the agile academy and it's a little bit of ying and yang going on, where they continually challenge and say, we need to do things faster, we need to do things quicker. What I do is go across those different academies and professions and try and go out and talk to the executives across the different brands and ensure that are we continuing to remain relevant. For example, our certification levels, are we actually making the profession attractive for people to enter? Are we actually making it attractive and incentivising people to actually invest in their careers, to learn the tooling, to adopt the methods and practices? Are we seeing a drop off in the structures around the tooling and the practices, etc? So you continually measure and monitor and it is about that relevancy, are the tools we use, are the methods and practices, is there something cooler and newer and fresher in the marketplace that we're seeing people migrate to? How do we arrest that before it gets too late? It's not about stopping people, it's about making sure that we offer the best products, the best methodologies, that the certification is attractive for people, that people see value in what we're doing. A lot of that, you just do by continually sense checking across the organisation.
Yes, I think we need to, with the people entering the workforce today, we need to look at it differently, and we need to come up with new thinking. So if you look at a linear career path, where you join a company in a particular role and you invest in your career over 20 years, that day is gone, so what we need to is we need to make it interesting and attractive for people entering the workforce today. IBM as a corporation is very good at doing this. For example, I can look at myself in the mirror and I've gone through this, where the role you might start doing is very different to the role you're going to end up doing in three or four years. So what you want to do, that linear part, I think is nearly over and if you look at an analogy, like if you look at something like Google Maps and you want to get from A to B. B, there are many different routes you can get there. So you don't have to say, well, here's my career path and it's mapped out and I see where I'm going for the next ten, 15 years, we need to give people the opportunity to move around, gain different experiences. We need to make sure they're learning those life skills, those business skills, those project management skills as they move around. So I see my remit, not just focus on bringing people into project management profession and keeping them there, my remit is how do I ensure that everybody entering IBM gets those project management skills and disciplines. Then in five or ten years, you're hoping and you're seeing that many of those folks say, well, you know what, I've tried this and I've tried that, I love project, management, I think I've gained the skills I want to invest, so I can now move around the different brands, but my career is in project management. So I'm looking in as much as giving people the skills and the expertise and recognising those, even if they don't call themselves a project manager today. So it's a slightly different way of thinking of it and a less linear approach.
I think what our project managers today need to have a much broader set of skills than the traditional project management skills of, for example, managing scope, managing budget, managing resources. Quite often and quite frequently, our project managers are now front and centre of the customer and they're talking across multiple different customer organisations, so they could be going in and they'd be talking with the marketing department, with the finance department, with the IT department, they have need to have skills in industry domains, so they need to be very comfortable talking about the financial sector and about banking, insurance, the healthcare sector, etc. Also, they need to be very comfortable in technologies as well and understanding what are the IBM offerings and how the IBM offerings can differentiate themselves in a customer environment. So that much more consultant type approach, much more change agent. So it's a much broader set of skills. Of course, we need to make sure those project managers continue to have those project management skills and techniques in their kit bag that they can take out and use, so they still need to be able manage scope, manage the finance and budget, but they need to be much more comfortable in a broader environment, broader context and be that trusted advisor and that change agent in front of the customer.
It is definitely a high bar and I think a challenge that we have is in a world that's moving so fast and where our customers are looking for that, looking for that expertise, looking for everybody to have a point of view and an opinion, one of the challenges to counteract that, or to help bring that balance, is for those people entering the workforce, we need to continue to provide a safe environment and give them the space and time to learn those skills and not expose them to something that they will drown in. I think that's a challenge that we have, not just my challenge or IBM's challenge, but I think it's a much broader challenge, where everything is going so fast now and our customers need solutions tomorrow. They need their partners, such as IBM to be very clear in their point of view and help them on that journey. At the same time, we need to provide a safe environment to give those people an opportunity to learn those skills and get comfortable in those environments and I think that's a challenge everyone has.
I think that's definitely one aspect, another aspect is around our agility, so we're on a journey and I'm very much, and this is the personal Jim Boland view, that some of the traditional waterfall methods of delivering projects, they're not going to go away, because we're talking to our customers and quite often, our customers are saying, I have a fixed budget, I need to get this done at this time, so we can't lose that set of skills and disciplines that have served us so well, but we are operating in this agile environment at the same time. So how do we balance some of the traditional ways of working with agile and with agility and things like, for example, all of our project managers now, in order to get certified, they all have to first get certified in design thinking, so that in itself, might sound like a small change, but that's pretty fundamental, so we're saying, you as a project manager needs to be able to demonstrate that you understand the design thinking concepts, you can run a design thinking workshop with our customer, so adopting agile of course as well, but adopting some of these new techniques and bringing them into the profession and forcing our project managers to think differently, to learn new skills, on top of their project management skills. So that idea of the agility, design thinking, all these new skills is a key change as well and that's a journey we're on. Then I think the third aspect, which goes back to an earlier conversation that we had was around, people entering the workforce today, who may put their hands up and say, you know what? I don't want to be a project manager and what I'll be saying is, that's fine, if you want to be a designer, software developer, architect, we will still develop your project management skills and techniques, we will continue to bring those offerings to you, you will need them. Then, at stage in the future, those people will turn around and say, you know what? Of all the jobs I've enjoyed over the last five years, this is the piece I enjoyed most, running a project and that'll be job well done for me.
I would say, be comfortable with change, so understand who to manage change, both you personally and within your environment, find a really good mentor, so find somebody who has been there, done that and help support you and then start building out your toolkit, start making sure you have the right tools and techniques and tips and tricks to help you be successful, or at least, to help you waffle through your first project, like I did.


3. 今天阅读的自我思考点评感想

1) 21 years ago challenge: transforming and operating at scale –to scale to the size of your business and to the volume of projects we're doing.
Now challenge: more around pace and the rate of change that's happening in the marketplace.
2) Continually measure and monitor the relevancy: e.g. what are the methods, what are the tools, what are the costs, what are the disciplines that they need to put in place.
3) Be a sexy project manager:  need to look at workforce differently, and need to come up with new thinking.
4) Shifting in the talent pool:  the project managers today need to have a much broader set of skills than the traditional project management skills. Quite often and quite frequently, project managers are now front and centre of the customer and they're talking across multiple different customer organisations.
5) Best piece of advice: be comfortable with change, so understand who to manage change, both you personally and within your environment, find a really good mentor.

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挑战第一百一十六天   读11页书，完成当日目标

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读282时

今天学习和阅读约5小时，累计阅读约530小时。
学习和投资心得：
关于成长股和价值股的量化回测：
第一步是确定两个投资组合，首先我们从美国上市的中大盘股中用价值指标来筛选最便宜和最贵的那10%的股票，分别作为成长股和价值股的选股池。在模拟中我们选用了息税前利润市值比 (EBIT/TEV)。用别的指标比如市盈率、市净率都可以，不影响结果。第二步就是从这成长股和价值股的选股池中分别随机选取30只股票组成成长股1号和价值股1号，分别平均配比到每个股票。这就是我们选股的过程，其实就是随机但系统地去选取30个成长股和价值股。第三步，我们从1963年开始每个月都重复这种选股的过程，直至2013年结束，这样我们就产生了成长股1号51年的每个月回报和价值股1号51年的每个月的回报，因此我们可以算出成长股1号和价值股1号这51年的年化收益、风险（波动性）及最大回撤等衡量表现的指标。大家可以视为这是两个基金公司，一个专注成长股投资，一个专注价值股投资。第四步，重复这种模拟1000次，最后我们将拥有成长股及价值股1号、2号、3号到1000号这1000个组合的51年的年化收益、风险及最大回撤。
这样我们就模拟了1000个成长股基金公司和1000个价值股基金公司51年的表现。我们来看看结果：成长股跑赢大盘的概率小于10%。
最后我们有以下几点发现：
1. 成长股年化收益率聚集在8%至9%之间，平均年化收益率8.82%。价值股年化收益率聚集在17%-18%之间，平均年化收益率17.04%。
2. 同期美国标普500的年化收益率是10.32%，只有少部分成长股组合比它表现好，而所有1000个价值股组合全部回报高于同期标普500表现。
3. 成长股和价值股的分布图之间没有任何交集
最惊人的是第三点发现，想必大家都听过田忌赛马的故事。我扬长避短，用我的上等马跟你的中等马比，争取战略上的胜利。但在成长股和价值股的较量中，这成长股中千里挑一的最上等马也没有价值股中的最下等马跑得快。而且这次我们可以很肯定的下一个结论，成长股跑赢大盘是一个小概率事件（大概在6%左右）成长股风险几乎是市场两倍。
看完了回报，我们再来看下成长股组合的风险。同期美国标普500的风险是14.92%，可以看到成长股和价值股的风险都比标普500要高。但至少价值股的高风险有高回报作为补偿。成长股组合的平均风险是27.88%，几乎是标普500风险的两倍，而平均回报却还不到年化9%。成长股最大回撤高达90%。
总结
系统地投资成长股，长期来看大幅低于市场回报，伴随着巨大的尾部风险，甚至有破产的可能。

今日阅读时间 2小时
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1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
《聪明的投资者》第4-6章

2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
当市场水平的变化已经提高了普通股的比例时，例如55％，那么可以通过卖掉1/11的股票并将收益转移到债券而恢复平衡；相反，当普通股比例下降到45％时，则用1/11的债券资金购买另外的股票。
对防御型投资者的普通股的选择原则：1、 适当但不要过度分散化。2、你挑选的每一家公司应该是大型的、知名的，在财务上是稳健的。3、每家公司都应具有长期连续支付股息的历史。4、 投资者应将其买入股票的价格限制在一定的市盈率范围，其参照的每股收益，应取过去7年的平均数。
我们奉劝那些初学者：不要把自己的精力浪费在试图战胜市场上。
不要急于操作，耐心等待即可。

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
在股票和债券之间进行动态平衡是一个很有趣的策略，但难点在于比例和时机。比例需要根据自己的风险喜好确定，当前自己定的是3:1。就行动态平衡的时机和指数基金的定投是有区别的，指数基金一般是逐月定投，但动态平衡一般是根据资产比例的变动来进行，比方说股票涨了10%，就把一部分钱转到债券里面，让股票和债券保持初始的比例。
这也给了自己一个启发，现在正在买指数基金，按照之前的规划，是固定每个月把一部分钱投进去，现在想想也不必完全如此。因为定投的目的是为了分散风险，当前指数是一个下行的趋势，可以按照指数每跌5%就补一部分仓的原则来摊低成本，没必要过于机械。当然，总的策略还是要分批买入，不能去猜底，一下子把子弹打光了。

今日第28天，阅读1小时，累计阅读50小时。其中缺席4天。

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书名《人生百味》
看了散文集中的几篇文章，最产生共鸣的是《生命的热忱》
作者拿破仑希尔
热忱是行动的动力。
“成功，效率和能力的一项绝对必要条件就是热忱。”

昨日阅读2.5小时，累计58小时

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-5128209-1-1.html

  2.
  循序渐进:完美人际关系的首则

    “嗯,以后再说。”
    研究表明,“以后”几乎不会有“再说”。事实上,一旦首次沟通邀请被拒绝,人们几乎不会继续尝试。当然,这并不是说我们要接受所有的邀请。只是,人们可以在拒绝别人的同时,仍然接受对方情感沟通的邀请。

                工具理性是通过实践的途径确认工具（手段）的有用性，从而追求事物的最大功效，为人的某种功利的实现服务。以工具理性促进下的物质进步，主要体现在经济的发达、物质的繁荣、生活水平的提高、科学技术的先进、武力的强大等等。

3.

    一次一步:从普通同事到挚友
            一般说来,随着沟通双方关系的不断深入,沟通邀请的强度不断加强,频率也会不断增加。这究竟是如何发生的?答案很简单:一次一步。也就是说,每次沟通,你们的关系都会前进一步。双方不断提出沟通邀请,并积极地回应对方的每次沟通邀请,你们的关系便得以顺利发展。
            这样看来,建立完美的人际关系似乎很简单,但生活中因提出沟通邀请或回应沟通邀请的方式不恰当而导致关系疏远的例子比比皆是。

4.

    转折点:三种沟通回应方式
          经过对人们日常沟通的多年研究后,我发现沟通邀请在情感沟通过程中的作用不容小觑。我和我的团队研究了多种不同的人际关系,包括朋友关系、父母与儿女之间的关系、成年兄弟姐妹之间的关系和各个阶段的婚姻关系等。事实证明,嘲笑、批评、自我维护和搪塞可以摧毁各种人际关系,可是“婚姻大师”好像有对付它们的秘密武器。究竟是什么使得夫妻顶住生活压力并始终在幽默中滋生爱意?

    人们采用三种方式回应他人的沟通邀请:回应、拒绝和回避。
    回应：如果一个人对他人的沟通邀请总是积极地作出回应,他不但会收获和谐、稳定的人际关系,而且能始终拥有对方的好感。
    拒绝：一般来说,好战或是喜欢同他人辩论的人总是倾向于拒绝另一方的沟通尝试。
                如果一方总是习惯性拒绝另一方的沟通邀请,那么被拒绝的一方往往选择沉默并封闭自己。毕竟谁也不想总被人嘲弄或轻视。我们还发现恶意的拒绝后,随之而来的是情感的压抑,而压抑的情感足以摧毁任何人际关系。拒绝往往带来情感的隔膜和关系的疏远。这种拒绝也会破坏友谊以及包括同事关系在内的其他人际关系。
    回避：总是回避他人沟通邀请的人要么直接忽视对方的邀请,要么用其他事情做挡箭牌。

    当沟通邀请遭遇冷漠或拒绝,发出邀请的一方立刻偃旗息鼓,退而不攻。研究证实,一旦沟通邀请被拒绝或被忽视,发出沟通邀请的一方将放弃再次邀请,其轻易程度让人难以置信。我们总以为得不到积极回应的人会坚持再次发出沟通邀请,事实证明,这种情况极少发生。

5.

    影响人们积极回应他人沟通邀请的因素有很多,如情商、家庭环境和情感沟通能力。

    人际关系危机:情感沟通缺乏的后果

        人们发出沟通邀请无非需要满足三种情感需求:
        1.归属感;
        2.对自身生活的控制感;
        3.认同感。
        一旦这些情感需求得到满足,人们将获得精神的满足,通晓自己活着的意义。
        ===============================
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1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接

推荐：《商业模式新生代》中文mobi版

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6439149-1-1.html

2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录

今天继续读：《超级交易员训练法》第三部分：交易系统设计

完成：无用论心理/勇于承认错误

        在深入市场研究的过程中，最大的忌讳就是抱怨“这根本行不通”。我经常给客户布置研究任务，让他们对某个有意思的领域进行了解。我再次问及此事时却发现他们研究的全然不是我之前要求的领域。当被问及这一领域的问题时，他们的回答通常是，“这根本行不通”。

        这一反应表明他们认为该领域毫无价值，因此直接放弃了可能非常有效的领域。“这根本行不通，因为……”的回答要好得多，因为该回答解释了行不通的原因，有时甚至能提出其他可选的研究方案。

        接下来，我将举例证明“无用论”心理的确会关上创造性研究的大门。

我的一位客户曾经提出一个离场策略，我认为这个策略非常有效，能确保获利回吐。入市后，他一开始将止损点位设置得比较宽泛，只要市场持续走强，这个幅度就保持不变。不过，一旦市场开始盘整或涨速放缓，就要逐渐收窄止损点位。这种策略的结果是回吐大量获利的可能性很小。听上去很不错，对吗？我当时也这么想，尤其是发现一旦市场开始再度波动，该系统还会发出再次入场的信号后。然而，九个月后，该交易员陷入亏损。当被问及上述止损设置表现如何时，他回答说已经放弃了这一设置。我问及原因，他的回答是，“在纳入我的头寸调整规则之后，该止损设置就行不通了”。他没有解释具体原因，因而也就没有提出可供选择的其他方案。他的回答就是“行不通”这简简单单的三个字，然后一切照常进行。

        我曾经和另一位客户共同开发出一套不错的系统。我们就高风险倍数交易展开了讨论，他告诉我他已经找到能在所谈论条件下使用的一种设置。他指出，该设置会在收益风险比达到五倍时发出信号。而且，他认为这些信号带来收益的概率能达到40%～50%。这种信号听起来似乎非常有效，因此我建议他在一段时间内对此加以应用。此外，他还准备对信号的确切参数进行研究，并每天发送电子邮件通报进展。结果如何呢？他连一个信号都没有捕捉到。后来，他不再向我发送邮件，告诉我这一信号行不通。我让他把数据发给我，找出信号无效的原因。但他希望等自己找到头绪再说，此前他希望能独处一段时间。他告诉我：“毕竟，我已经告诉你这根本行不通了”。

        就这样，“行不通”三个字再次扼杀了一个可能引起巨大反响的想法。

这种情况频频发生，上述两个例子不过较为典型罢了。但每个例子均说明了一个重要的道理：你对某件事情的看法可能导致你与某个想法的关系陡然转变，可能让你与重大机遇擦肩而过。据说，在发明电灯之前，爱迪生曾经经历了数以万计的失败，但他没有就此放弃。相反，他找出了失败的原因，并据此找到更好的方法。任何时候，他都不曾灰心丧气地说过一句“这根本行不通”！

…...

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想

      当我想做一件事的时候，就会找到很多的理由来支持自己做这件事。如果我不想做一件事的时候，就会找到很多的理由来支持自己不做这件事。

      如果一件事是必须要做的：关乎结果的重要事件，且难度较大。那么就需要不断地回顾初心，坚持到底去克服心理上的逃避，完成这件事，而不是一味地强调方法不对，方向错误，找个理由放弃。

     这与“当你拥有一套系统或一个想法时，必须知道什么情况下它真的行不通”是相互补充的。因为“如果你对某件事情进行了充分的研究，清清楚楚地知道自己无法得到想要的结果，并了解自己无法达成结果的原因，就说明你已经向承认这一访求行不通迈进了重要一步”。

      无用不是目的：我的目的是达到目标。在“无用”的情况下如何推进下一步行动？

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