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2018-6-25 11:06:16
2018.6.25
昨日阅读6.5小时  累计阅读388.5小时。
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2018-6-25 11:12:30
昨日阅读1小时,累积阅读402小时
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2018-6-25 12:18:44
昨日阅读3小时,累计阅读83小时。
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2018-6-25 13:26:35
昨日阅读时间2小时,总阅读时间99小时。
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2018-6-25 14:17:56


昨日阅读3小时,累积阅读180小时
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2018-6-25 14:46:28
充实每一天 发表于 2018-6-23 07:00
【加入充实计划】【了解充实计划】

|新充实挑战|    |公告【想成为牛人】|
昨日1小時
累積65小時
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2018-6-25 15:37:26
6-25日,今日阅读130分钟,本年度254小时
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2018-6-25 15:50:30
昨日阅读5小时,累计阅读73小时。
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2018-6-25 15:59:18
昨日阅读1小时,累计阅读596小时
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2018-6-25 16:52:59
昨日阅读1小时,累计阅读149小时
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2018-6-25 17:04:19
昨天阅读1小时,共阅读164小时.
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2018-6-25 17:37:34
昨日阅读0.5小时,累计阅读163小时
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2018-6-25 18:42:23
新挑战第1天,昨天阅读1小时,累计阅读1小时。
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2018-6-25 19:29:06
昨日阅读2小时,本月累计阅读42小时
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2018-6-25 19:49:31
昨日阅读1小时,累计阅读177小时。
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2018-6-25 20:08:23
昨日阅读1小时,累计阅读87小时
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2018-6-25 20:22:53
今天学习和阅读约5小时,累计阅读约545小时。
学习和投资心得:
基金投资的波段操作:有一点非常清楚:没有人可以准确预测股市!所以涨一点就卖,准备找个低点再买,类似于俗话说的“低买高卖”,缺乏实际操作性,否则大家都可以进来捡钱了。实际情况却是多数人在这个市场中不断的亏钱……
真实的A股市场,2008-2017年的10年中,30%的时间大涨(牛市),而且这段时间基本都在涨,如果出来了基本等不到更低的点;20%的时间大跌(熊市),而且是持续跌,卖进度基本都被套;另外50%的时间都是小涨小跌(震荡市),中间赚的钱不能覆盖几笔交易手续费。喜欢交易的人,会在牛市赚一点小钱,熊市和震荡市更赚不到钱,最终就是——不赚钱。原因是:投资股票和基金主要赚取三部分钱:企业未来的钱(业绩增长)、企业原有的钱(分红)和市场送的钱(估值波动)。其中前两部分钱很容易赚,但是需要时间等待,后一种钱不仅需要等待市场情绪波动,还需要碰到一群更傻的人愿意低卖高卖来送钱。最终赚钱都需要——时间!正常人投资股市,不会希望只获得每年10%以内的收益,否则买债券就解决了。如果想赚取更好的收益,需要挑到好的指数或公司,在估值不高时买入或持有,剩下就是等待。等到牛市来临,指数/公司全面高估时退出可以赚取丰厚的利润,通常年化收益率可达20%以上;如果发现性价比更好的指数/公司,换换也能取得非常好的收益。对于盈利能力很强的指数或公司,长期持有效果也不错,它们会像印钞机一样提供源源不断的利润。这种赚钱方式更简洁、更轻松,赚取的利润更丰厚。股价波动是人类情绪的一种体现,无谓小波动,看准大波动,是长赢的关键。
基金的盈利收益率:一般,盈利收益率等于市盈率的倒数,就是:盈利收益率=1/PE。其次,银行螺丝钉给出的盈利收益率法判断指数基金低估、正常估值、高估的标准:低估:盈利收益率>10%,可以开始定投;正常估值:6.4%=<盈利收益率<=10% ,持有不动;高估:盈利收益率<6.4%,分批卖出;这里,6.4%是债券基金的平均收益率,当盈利收益率不如债券基金平均收益率时,还不如买债券基金划算,6.4%对应的PE=1/6.4%=15.625。可以看出,盈利收益率法很简单。那么它与分位标准差、均值标准差的关系如何呢?这里以沪深300、中证红利为例,进行比较。
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2018-6-25 20:57:20
昨日阅读4小时,累计阅读204.5小时
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2018-6-25 21:16:54
什么是好的商业模式及对投资的意义?

https://xueqiu.com/8736280376/109033152


一、房地产
F君: 大家觉得哪个公司或行业的商业模式好,为什么?或者不好,为什么?
A君:我觉得地产先交钱后交楼,茅台的先打款后才给货经销商,茅台如果卖不出去还可以越放越升值;格力的模式也是先打款后给货。
地产的土地还可以也是久了一般可以升值的。
F君:(房地产)基本上没有应收账款,也不怕存货。
LJ君:要有品牌的,品牌有溢价的。
L君:地产商为什么敢放这么大的杠杆,就是借来的钱买入的地能够升值(至少到目前为止还是那样),土地升值的幅度大于融资的成本,通过高杠杆做大了规模。
F君:还有房地产预售制度。
T君:我喜欢那种占款能力特别强的公司,最好是上下游通吃的,当然不是恶意拖欠经销商款项的那种。典型的比如格力,这些是强势品牌的体现。
二、互联网:
F君:我觉得腾讯的商业模式好。业务扩张不需要增加资产,这点比金融,地产好多了。
LJ君:那是互联网模式,老大通吃。京东,淘宝以后中国就这两家超市就差不多。
Z君:京东和阿里谁的模式好?淘宝卖假货不负责,偷税也不用负责。
Y君:腾讯未来发展的潜力还非常大。
现在来看,科技已经更进一步了,进入叫做大科技的时代。就是科技=财富。
这个提法是深圳市政府提的观念,认为未来科技=财富,而且底层的科技基础创新很难分享,一定要自己做。在科技创新上面,会出现只有第一没有第二的残酷的局面。
ZH君:做平台类的,轻资产的,收过路费的。都是好的商业模式。
L君:滴滴的商业模式应该也不错吧,一个大平台,司机和车都不用自己出,然后收服务佣金。
ZH君:滴滴的商业模式就是收过路费的。也是做平台的。
L君:亚马逊的商业模式值得研究,一家亏损这么久的公司,市值可以屡创新高,都可以算是一支奇葩!
F君:是的,亚马逊很奇葩。据说老板不愿意过早赢利。
Z君:亚马逊的营收增长超过30%,或许这是可以不盈利的原因。
ZH君:做平台类的,轻资产的,收过路费的。都是好的商业模式。其实商业模式就那么几个。你可以把卖饮料的,也看成做平台。他是把上下游连接起来。下游有无数个经销商。网络都是他的护城河,终端用户是他的粉丝。这么看的话,饮料公司消费品公司就是个做平台的。
F君:关键是他能否卖其他的东西?比如伊利卖别的食品能否同牛奶一样牛逼?
ZH君:你看看达利园。他就是在他的系统上,基本上是全面开花。
三、白酒烟草:
T君:还有一种商业模式也非常牛,商品价格越高,越有人买,价格越高越有面子。典型代表茅台以及喜诗糖果。
F君:好的商业模式需要壁垒,否则别人都山寨你。
Z君:白酒烟草模式最好。
T君:烟草没上市,可惜了,你看中华香烟一年卖多少?
L君:在中国,烟草类的好像还没有上市公司?(答复:美国有。)
T君:美国长线最牛的公司就是生产万宝路的。(答复:菲利普莫里斯。)
Z君:过去50年年均增长达到20%的好像基本上是烈酒和烟草。
四、类赌场:
T君:澳门那几家赌场的公司商业模式也好。其实今年也应该值得跟踪。
A君:最近传海南岛也开赌了,可能先是彩票和赌马,再以后会有实体赌场。
L君:我觉得海南岛的新闻多半是谣言
F君:股市也类似赌博。开赌场(交易所)的生意最好,因为垄断。拉皮条的(券商)生意差多了。
T君:港股大牛市,港交所完全垄断,独家经营生意,确定性很强,只是估值不便宜。前几个月配了一小部分,当前锋用,完全不参与防守,最近补涨了很多。
A君:现在港股日成交都是千几亿的,港交所最受惠。
T君:好像国外哪一家的开夜总会的公司都上市了,这个是不是商业模式更好
L君:港股也有。
F君:关键是这种公司能够长盛不衰吗?
ZH君:北京的。天上人间还很牛逼。现在也没有了
W君:不是夜总会。是澳大利亚一家妓院上市了,我一直关注的。
F君:能够快速扩张吗?
W君:不能。
历史上永久不衰的行业都是好行业:黄赌毒是三大常青树行业。
五、食品饮料:
T君:如果抛开这些稀缺性的商业模式的话,还有一种商业模式,就是可以走内生发展模式的公司,可以说是轻资产,现金流好,利用现有的盈利能力,只需要拿出一部分盈利的比例进行扩大再生产,同时基本上不需要举债融资,还能保证分红。这种就可持续性,风险也小。典型代表:除白酒外,还有格力,周黑鸭等一些公司。
T君:有强势品牌的制造业也有,如格力。
T君:如果从财务报表这块来看,我一般会分析十年。把十年的经营净现金流,投资净现金流,融资净现金流做个累计。一对比一下就一目了然,基本上一眼就能扫出来,公司这十年的经营风格。
ZH君:
其实食品饮料行业,包括消费品的商业模式,是非常好的。因为它主要是品牌,和规模一旦建立起来。就是一个轻资产的公司。你去看看好的公司净资产收益率都不错。主要还是看品牌和规模。这是消费品行业的护城河。
T君:
我刚才上面说的可能大部分属于这一块。
五、特殊行业:
W君:白酒、烟草的商业模式好,但算不上最好,因为关注的人太多
我认为福寿园(属殡葬行业)的商业模式最好,产品只提价不降价,存货越放越值钱,客户毫无砍价能力。而且库存越放越值钱。
W君:国家严控准入,别人轻易进不来。
F君:你找到了商业模式最好的东西(表情)。
T君: 对,忘了还有福寿园,关键确定性好,100%确定。也是属于高门槛的行业。
W君:产品是刚需。人,有可能不抽烟不喝酒不吃药,但绝不可能不死。福寿园还是全国连锁。
ZH君:福寿园是地产。福寿园的缺陷是它的资源有限。他不敢快速去化。
W君:类似于地产,有了资质以后就是拿地、开发、销售。福寿园是可以不断拿地的。
F君:福寿园的模式别人能够模仿吗?
W君:别人很难模仿福寿园,资质很难拿到。
人类的生活方式再怎么变,还是要死。
W君:福寿园赚的不是让人死的钱

文章对好的商业模式与差的商业模式做出了探讨,最后的结论是:

好的商业模式就是赚钱不辛苦,坏的商业模式就是辛苦不挣钱。
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2018-6-25 22:10:03

1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
《聪明的投资者》第11-13章

2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
影响股价的因素:1、总体的成长前景。2、管理。3、财务实力和资本结构。4、股息记录。5、当期股息收益率。
如果我们希望高成长股的增长率实际得以实现的话,那么预期增长率的股价必须相对保守。
面向投资者的大多数行业研究的价值并不是太大。所发掘出的材料一般都是公众非常熟悉的,而且已经对市场价格产生了重要的影响。
不要看中某一年的收益。如果你确实关注短期收益,请当心每股收益数据中存在的陷阱。
公司会计经常是需要慎重对待的;证券分析会非常复杂;股票估价只有在非常罕见的情况下,才是真正可靠的。

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
在第11章中,格雷厄姆对证券分析的一般方法进行了介绍,当然都是比较简略的概念性介绍,比较适合入门者。格雷厄姆自己也明确了,本书的重点在于讲述原则和态度,而不在于介绍信息和知识。
第12章是对每股收益的思考,介绍了一些会计操纵的案例,看来美国公司的会计中也有不少灵巧的“意大利工匠”。以前经常看到一些股评家为了吹嘘自己的技术分析有多牛,会说巴菲特来A股会怎么样怎么样,现在看来并非如此。指望这些会计伎俩能骗过巴菲特,实在是too young too simple。
第13章对四家上市公司进行了比较,结论简单说就是Emery公司的市盈率太高,所以不值得购买。这时大家可能又会觉得炒股只看市盈率的话,岂不是太简单了。确实没这么简单,看看格雷厄姆对要投资证券的要求:1、相当的规模。2、至少在过去20年内连续支付过股息。3、过去10年内没有负的利润 。   。。。  满足这些条件的公司,财务造假的可能性不大,也不太可能是周期类股票,市盈率还是比较有参考价值的。
现在看来按照格雷厄姆的选股标准,我大A股的股票满足条件的,应该主要是那些老母猪,以及格力、茅台、片仔癀这些股票了,邱国鹭、但斌、赵丹阳他们,不亏是格雷厄姆和巴菲特的忠实信徒。

今日第31天,阅读2.5小时,累计阅读54.5小时。其中缺席4天。
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2018-6-25 22:23:11
昨日阅读0.5小时,累计阅读252.5小时
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2018-6-25 22:47:45
昨日阅读2小时,累计阅读310小时
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2018-6-25 23:00:36
昨日阅读2小时,累计阅读290时
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2018-6-25 23:02:39
昨日阅读3小时,累计阅读372小时      
挑战第一百一十九天   读12页书,完成当日目标
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2018-6-25 23:17:38
6月25日

昨日阅读2小时,累计66.5小时

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-5128209-1-1.html

创建《情感日志》

    ·今天,你向关系密切的人提出沟通邀请时,你注意到了什么?
    ·你提出的沟通邀请,对方如何回应?你认为这种回应方式怎么样?
    ·你注意到有人积极回应、回避或拒绝沟通邀请吗?具体情况如何?
    ·你提出沟通邀请的方式会影响对方的回应方式吗?下次你有需要改进的地方吗?
    ·今天,你如何回应他人的沟通邀请?
    ·你是否积极回应、回避或拒绝他人的沟通邀请?具体情况如何?
    ·他人提出沟通邀请的方式是否影响你的回应方式?你觉得他们需要何种改进?你认为他人提出沟通邀请的方式如何影响进一步的沟通?

    男性在决定婚姻质量方面发挥的作用不可低估。男人要主动积极回应邀约。
    妻子的幽默、兴趣和情感在很大程度上影响丈夫在争吵中保持冷静的能力——人们认为这种能力是决定婚姻稳固的终极力量。

    面对压力,男性倾向于选择“战斗或逃跑”,女性则倾向于选择“自助或求助”

沟通中的6只黑手——阻碍人际关系发展的症结

    第一只黑手:心不在焉
    “心不在焉”并不是蓄意而为,有时只是因为人们当时太专注其他事情,忽略了身边的人。
    什么才是化解“心不在焉”的解药呢?很简单,设定目标。

    收集“美好瞬间”可以帮我们摆脱“心不在焉”的恶习。

    人生就像一条珍珠项链,每一个美好瞬间都是一颗珍珠,我们应该有意识地收集这些美丽的珍珠。自从他成为一个忠实的“收集者”,他慢慢地学会倾心关注身边的人,同他们的关系也日益稳固。

    你的关注是通向情感沟通的桥梁,并为将来持久的感情铺平了道路。

做一名“美好瞬间的收集者”

    第二只黑手:口“剑”腹“蜜”
    你希望同对方沟通,于是你发出沟通邀请,可是你选择开始对话的方式却充满了责备和批评,结果自然事与愿违。
    心平气和地开始对话才是解决之道。
    如果“恶果”已经造成,另一个解决之道是事后再同对方沟通。

    第三只黑手:口无遮拦
    人际交往中,各种摩擦不可避免。在矛盾冲突中如何表达自己的观点,直接决定你的人际交往能力。
    人际交往中最根本的原则是:必要时可以抱怨,但绝对不要批判。

    第四只黑手:宣泄不当
    男人崩溃的概率大于女人。
    建议暂时不要考虑眼前的矛盾,去做点能让你平静的事情,至少20分钟。

-----------------分割线-------------------
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昨日2h

累计66.5h

fighting....................
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2018-6-25 23:20:55
昨日阅读5小时,累计阅读15小时
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2018-6-25 23:25:31
2018-06-25

昨日阅读1小时,累计阅读315小时

1. 今天阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接:
Team Leadership — Maximizing Potential
https://www.pmi.org/learning/tra ... rojectified-podcast

2. 今天阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录:

Andy Kaufman
I've had the opportunity to interview a number of different people like John Connor from Harvard and I've may not get it word perfect but his definition is, they're, when we're doing leadership if we articulate, the vision, so we define that, we align people with it, we inspire them, despite obstacles. So that's a, that's a pretty standard, there's a place we need to go, and we need to get aligned you know people aligned there. I've had Jim on our podcast twice, he and his writing partner have sold millions of copies of the leadership challenge. And he says it is slightly different, it's, he goes leadership is a relationship between those who aspire to lead and those who choose to follow. Which I think is really good definition. In that, some people say, well I want that role Stephen, because I'll get a raise.
Second part of it, they choose to follow, which is important part. Because sometimes people think well I got the title, I don't care if it's project manager, I don't care what it is, if I've got the title, I'm the boss, but people, you could argue in, in many respects, everyone, everyone is leading a team, they're leading a team of volunteer employees. I mean they're volunteering their effort, they're volunteering, so when I'm talking about leadership I, I'm, it's, it's the broadest sense of on a personal basis, what,  where do I aspire and how, who are, who are my, been asked to, to, to take this team and will, do they want to follow, will they choose to follow me? And not because necessarily I'm even the boss, maybe it's I'm trying to influence a stakeholder.  but I want them to follow with the idea.
You can be on those definitions, there's this guy named Justin Menkes wrote a book  Better Under Pressure. It's, it's actually my favourite definition of leadership, it is, maximising potential.
It's maximising potential, in ourselves, and in the people that we lead. And what I love about that one is, it, it, I think too often what we think is, Stephen when you run your projects, when I'm running my projects, whoever's listening to us, they're running their projects, we think our job is to hit a date, to deliver, but if we also load in the fact that it's to deliver results but it's to maximise their potential. And though it's not politically correct to say this, and please understand what I'm saying, not everyone has the same potential, they do as a human for sure, but some people don't, they want to stay technical. They don't wanna go into management, they don't wanna be in, you know, their, their potential, so it's, for every person around us, what can we do to maximise their potential? As we go about delivering and, that, that definition has served me well and am I maximising my potential?
It's powerful. And you can maybe even, if it maybe stretch it a little bit further that, much of what agile is, is maximising the potential of the value we can deliver? So this, it's, it's maybe somewhat related, how do we maximise the value of what we can get out of this project? How do we maximise the value out of the people around us, how do we, how do we maximise the value that we could provide. If we said you know what? I wanted to go to that conference that Stephen's at right now, but I just didn't take the time. They're not maximising their potential potentially. You know, it's like investing in their PMI chapter.
I've had over 250 coaching clients, and this has only happened once. But this person I was working with said, my boss, they, they sit at their cubicle, they sit on their desk, they don't, they, they don't make decisions. They, they'll, they just you know when we need something done, they'll, they'll be like oh well what do you guys think? And they, they don't, they don't lead. They, and, and  at one point this person said I asked my boss like, don't you think you ought to make this call? And he goes, I don't wanna make this sort of call. You know, I don't want, I don't want to do this, and so, there's a, does it matter? Yeah he would say, it, it just, it it slowed everything down, things didn't get decided, people were unmotivated, another client he worked at, a place where the, VP was like six months from retirement?
Didn't wanna make any, any decisions, because, I don't want to screw it up. And yeah too often people think, well it's, it's just a small circle that's gonna be impacted by this lack of leadership, but really you look at those two examples, there's this ripple effect, of impact. From apathy, to entropy, you know it just slows things down, thinks break down, we don't innovate because of it so, I, I you know, I don't want to overstate it, but I, I think there's a way you could say that everything that we're working on, rises and falls on leadership.
And it does mean just on one person, but even a shared leadership, that we're all willing to say hey I'm willing to maximise my potential, I'm willing to, to grow and to learn from this, it, it, where are we going, what are roles of responsibility that's just like basic, blocking and tackling from project major.
I've had the opportunity to speak on every continent except Antarctica, I haven't worked on any clients there yet, but I was over in Kenya and I asked somebody about, tell me about your soccer team. And they're like, a lot of townspeople, they can't win a game. And it, it, that's a picture for the fact that a team is not just a collection of individuals, because you might even have strong individuals, but there's something about, it's more than just a group of individuals, even if there's talent there, there's something about that team, on mission together. Okay. And so I, I'm sure they're quite  more brilliant academic definitions of it but the thing I'm looking for is we're a team, who, who even if we're not on, in a team, if we are the collection of individuals but we are on mission. And we are working together towards that same goal.
He's got a really good model, I mean there's plenty of models so it's, it's as good as any, and at the base of his team model, is trust. Okay so. I'm not gonna say this happens on a regular basis but just often enough. Where I'll tell you Stephen, you walk in, and it's like a fog. It, it, it's, it's  people, you can just tell that there's a finger pointing culture, and people are all looking around, their shoulder and it seems like they're always covering their back side and so, so trust at the basis of, does it peak says, our people willing to be vulnerable with each other?
Or is there somebody, can somebody say you know what? Like in a daily stand up can they go, you know, I'm struggling with this. And I'm struggling with that yesterday, I need some help. That's a pretty good sign for a team.
He puts conflict right on top of that, is, is there artificial harmony? So,  a way that I measure that one is, when a subject comes up, does everyone look at the boss first to see, how to answer? does, if the boss says something are people willing to be a bit of Devil's advocate so to speak, would they go well, Stephen I, I don't know if I agree with you on that. You know like, or, or, or what about this, as the academics call it, cognitive conflict versus affective. Cognitive is, it's, it's conflict. But it's, about, it's trying to move the subject forward, it's trying to get to a better solution and, and one of the things I work with teams on, Stephen is if they don't have cognitive conflict, that's not a good sign.
Yeah, so,  we just give it to you in a story. There's a guy named Keith Murnigham who wrote a book called  Do Nothing. Is the title of it. And his point is not that you do nothing.
That's the joke right? But he, but he goes, the higher you get up in an organisation, it should be perceived you're doing nothing. Now once again people go oh I know exactly it's like that, because, it's not that they're doing nothing, they're doing nothing in the day to day of today. They're looking further down the road, it's the premise of his book. Leaders need to look further down the road. One of the messages in the book, is you and I need to trust people more than they've earned.
And so I'll bring that up in like a keener version and I'll say alright, anybody have trust issues here? Anybody struggle with the fact, that he says we're supposed to trust people more than they've earned and everyone's like, yeah! I'll say why? And the pattern, is that people say this, they go, oh my name's of it Stephen. And if they drop the ball and my name's on it I get burned and you don't have to work too long before that's gonna happen and so as soon as you get, as soon as someone drops the ball, and my name is on it, and I look bad, and I take the hit for it, and so I think there are a lot of people, most organisations are pretty lean and I'm not talking philosophy I'm just talking just like staffing.
Right exactly, yeah and so it's the, listen, if I trust people more than they've earned, in fact his, his point I think would be, you have to because we're so, skeleton. You have to trust people more than they've earned, or you won't ever go home at night or you'll just be stressed out and so, you have, and to be fair to, if someone's earned a two, they don't say, give the person a ten. But if they are two, give them a four. And so that's some, sometimes the way we'll try to talk about it of, can you trust them a little bit more but I think a lot of times people feel like, you know, there are too many bulls eyes to go around and I don't want that bulls eye on me.
What's the business case for you know, it's, it's the, equivalent of we're taking that hill and the why, if people don't know the why, had the opportunity to Robert, the foremost researcher in writer on influence, and he's like, the word because, is the most influential word in the English language. If people don't know the because, if they don't know the why are why are we doing this, it's, it's difficult to kind of get alignment and  and so at, at the high level I can't get anywhere with alignment if, if we don't know that. But the, the more complex answer is, how culture just factors I know the work you've done, you could do the whole episode on just how culture affects things like this, but to get a team to be aligned without understanding the culture, had the opportunity to interview Ed Shine, the MIT fellow who coined the term corporate culture, and after I interview him, I within less than a month, I was at a client and COO goes, Andy I want you help us  change the culture here and so, I call Ed. I'm like, so Ed, a company wants me to help change the culture what do I do? And Ed must be in his 90s now, it was like talking to Yoda, I mean it was unbelievable.
He goes, you can't do it. And so, his, his point is, without, you can't do it from the outside. Anyway, his, his point was and there may even be exceptions to what he's saying but his point is, if they're not willing to do it, internally, you've, you've made a wonderful living doing that. Helping people, kind of think through and how do you change and do that. But his point is, that, alignment without understanding the culture of the organisation, and the history and the backstory, and the attitudes and behaviours that it's, it's much more difficult so, I like to say that I never knew more about having kids than before, I never more about child raising than before I had kids. Right.

3. 今天阅读的自我思考点评感想
                                

1)Leadership is a relationship between those who aspire to lead and those who choose to follow. It's maximising potential, in ourselves,and in the people that we lead. It is not just leading to achieve aparticular defined objective, but may be maximising the potential ofthe value we can deliver.

2) Ateam is a collection of individuals on mission together. There should be artificial harmony as a team. Example: is it safe, to bringup conjuring opinions or do you kind of get looked at like dude?

3)Where the trust issue is coming from? Leaders need to look furtherdown the road. You and I need to trust people more than they've earned. The the issue is that are our people willing to bevulnerable with each other.

4)team alignment: alignment without understanding the culture of the organisation, and the history and the backstory, and the attitudes and behaviours that it's, it's much more difficult. To get alignment,you really have to understand the culture around it.

5)Models of self directed, self led, self-organising, teams:You can'tforce it, but you can set the conditions in which people will bemotivated.

6)Shared leadership:

7)How important is hiring for team effectiveness? Just oneperson on the team as a slacker who was a withholder of effort, or a jerk who was something like violators of social normsor something like that.

,drops the team performance is 40%.

8)We're most motivated if we only have a 50 to 70% likelihood ofsuccess.

9)You get what you tolerate, so the solution is to challenge them.


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2018-6-26 00:22:29
6月第25天
昨日阅读3小时,累计阅读288小时

1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
推荐:《The Handbook of Portfolio Mathematics: Formulas For Optimal Allocation and Leverage》 关于头寸管理的经典,值得研读。仅1B,超值
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3554532-1-1.html

2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
今天继续读:《超级交易员训练法》 第四部分:资金管理的重要性
完成:头寸管理的CPR模型/头寸管理的基础/计算资产

……
        本书下一节提及的所有头寸调整模型都与我们账户中的资产金额有关。如果意识到计算资产规模的方法可以分为三种,这些模型一下子就会复杂得多。但事实就是如此。每种资产计算方法可能对你的风险敞口和投资回报产生不同的影响。这些方法包括核心资产法、总资产法和调整后总资产法。
计算资产的方法有多种核心资产法再简单不过。当你建仓时,只需按照自己的头寸调整方法决定将多少资产分配到这一头寸。如果你持有四个未平仓头寸,核心资产就等于初始资本金减去分配到这四个头寸的资金。
        假设你的初始账户资金规模为50000美元,每笔交易分配10%的资金。如果根据本书提到的“不同头寸调整方法”建立一个5000美元的头寸,那么你现在的核心资产就是45000美元。随后,你建立了一个新的头寸,并为该头寸配置了4500美元的资产,这样,你的核心资产就剩下45500美元。第三次建仓时,你投入的资金为4050美元,核心资产减至36450美元。这样一来,你到最后持有36450美元的核心资产和三个未平仓头寸。也就是说,核心资产等于初始资产减去为每个头寸分配的资金,到平仓时再做出相应的调整。新头寸的资产配置总是与当前的核心资产密切相关。
        如果你根据风险百分比进行投资,那么风险敞口金额就是配置的资金规模。假设你以每股100美元的价格买入100股股票,止损点位设置在95美元,那么你的风险配置就是500美元。你的总投资金额为10000美元,但配置资金指的仅仅是风险敞口金额,而非总投资金额。
        我是从一名因擅长利用“市场资金”而声名远扬的交易员口中第一次听到“核心资产”这个概念的。首次交易时,由于用的是自己的钱,他会尽可能地将风险最小化。如果获利,他就将这部分获利资金称为“市场资金”,愿意承担的风险敞口也大大放松。这位交易员一直都运用核心资产法进行头寸调整。
        总资产法也非常简单。你的账户资产价值就等于账户现金加未平仓头寸的价值。例如,假设你拥有40000美元的现金,一个价值15000美元的未平仓头寸,一个价值7000美元的未平仓头寸,以及另一个价值2000美元的未平仓头寸,那么你的总体资产就等于现金价值加上所有三个头寸的价值,等于62000美元。
        汤姆·巴索一直都在使用总资产法进行交易,他曾经教会我如何保持风险和波动性的恒定。这种方法很有效!如果希望维持恒定的风险,你可以让风险占投资组合总价值的百分比保持不变。
        调整后总资产法(这种方法有时被称做“调整后核心资产法”,但我认为这个名称并不妥当,因此将其重新命名。)结合了前两种方法的特点。根据调整后总资产法,建仓时配置的风险敞口必须从初始资产中扣除,这一点与核心资产法相似。但二者的区别在于,在市场条件有利的情况下,随着止损点位的调整,投资者获得的收益或减少的风险必须纳入调整后总资产。因
此,调整后总资产等于核心资产加上离场后任何未平仓头寸锁定收益,或上调离场点位后的风险降幅。
        例如,假设你拥有一个资金规模为50000美元的投资账户。你建立了一个5000美元的头寸。这样,核心资产(调整后总资产)就降至45000美元。随后,假设头寸价值上升,你也设立了一个追踪离场点位。由于设置了新的离场点位,风险敞口很快降至3000美元。因此,本交易日你的调整后总资产为50000美元减去最新风险敞口3000美元,等于47000美元。
      第二天,头寸价值下跌1000美元,但你的调整后总资产仍然是47000美元,因为如果及时止损,你的风险敞口并没有发生变化。只有当投资者为降低风险或锁定更多获利而调整离场点位或平仓时,调整后总资产才会发生变化。
…...

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
        今天读到头寸管理的关键部分了。根据计算方法的不同,所得出的结果数据会有一定的区别。
        在几本书中多次看到CPR,终于看到了关于CPR的详细说明及计算范例。这是交易员日常最多用到的工具。掌握这个工具是交易员的基本技能:一定操作熟练。这个部分需要多读多算几遍,达到融会贯通的程度(至少也必须是熟能生巧的程度。练习,练习,刻意练习…...
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2018-6-26 03:26:47
昨日阅读3小时,累积阅读414小时
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2018-6-26 04:54:28
昨日阅读1小时,累积阅读205小时
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