【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月亚太海运行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：
have been an overhang for the shipping stocks. While
we think that there is merit in these concerns, we believe
that much of these issues could be priced in.
Dry-bulk Shipping: The order book, representing 64%
of the current fleet, has been an overhang despite
stronger-than-expected demand for commodity shipping
and strong freight rates in 2009. Although we think that
supply concerns are valid – with deliveries likely to peak
in 2010 – we believe that China’s robust demand for
commodities will likely maintain strong freight rates.
Rates could fall in 1H10 on seasonal weakness, and we
would look to add to dry bulk shipping stock holdings on
dips.
Container Shipping: Fundamentals for the container
shipping industry are challenging given leverage to the
global economic recovery and US/European consumer
demand, on which we are less optimistic. In addition, on
top of the looming order book, the laid up fleet capacity,
representing 11% of the global fleet is a concern.
Conversely, we believe that liners have become more
rational in freight rate pricing and could see a recovery to
breakeven profitability by 2H10. We are positive on
container shipping stocks with attractive valuations, for
earnings recovery in 2011.
What’s New: We recently visited five China shipyards:
Yangzijiang, Jiangsu Eastern, New Century, Jinhaiwan,
and Ouhua. The key takeaway is that delivery delays are
likely to persist in 2010 and are one of several means
that China shipyards are using as to mitigate order
cancellations. Seeking to protect order books, shipyards
are also providing flexible payment schedules,
cancelling a portion of a series of ship orders, providing
loans and even taking equity stakes in ships. This
implies that ship deliveries are likely to be lower in
2010-11 but will stretch beyond to 2012-13, acting as an
effective ceiling to strong freight rate recovery.