【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国电力行业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：82
        【目录或简介】：
Contents
Our key assumptions 4
Darker FY10 outlook due to coal 5
Downgrade to Neutral — Benefit from utilisation gains overwhelmed by higher
coal costs 5
Higher coal costs and interest rates spell pressure 5
Benefit from utilisation gains overwhelmed 6
Tariff reform is key to re-entry strategy 6
Prefer quality plays heading into a turbulent next year 7
Upgrade CRP as top BUY; proxy Huaneng at attractive valuations; downgrade
Datang, Huadian and CPID 7
Our outlook for thermal coal 8
Company comparisons 10
Overhang on tariff risk is lifted 15
Latest tariff rebalancing was a non-event 15
NDRC and SERC accelerate power tariff reform 18
Power tariff reform is possible but not in near-term 19
Tariff reform: neutral for the sector; positive for listed IPPs 19
Government continues to push for wider-acceptance of direct-power purchase 21
Coal prices rising in FY10-11F 22
Spot coal prices now up 12% y-t-d, but off 33% from 2008's peak 22
Coal inventory at QHD and IPPs remains at historical high 23
We see only a moderate rise in coal prices 23
Assuming key contract coal price rises 5% in 2010F (2011F: flat), while spot
prices up 5% (5%) 25
Contract coal negotiation may play a less significant role 26
Global thermal coal price update 29
Fuel cost trend of IPPs under coverage 32
Utilisation is on a multi-year up-cycle 34
Power output up 17.1% y-y in October versus +9.5% in September 34
Power demand growth: sustainable recovery 34
Utilisation rose 12.3% y-y in October (+1.3% in September); capacity at 58.6GW
(up 7.4% y-t-d) 36
Revising our macro assumption for power demand and supply 36
Utilisation trend of IPPs under coverage 41
IPPs’ coalmine investments 42
Coal investment updates on Datang, CRP, and Huadian 42
Backward integration into coal is value-accretive 44
In terms of backward integration, Datang is the most advanced 45
Update on coal transformation 46
Coal-to-polypropylene project looks on track 46
Coal-to-natural gas project been approved; limited exposure so far 49
Other factors to consider 50
Interest rate hikes in 2010-11F negative to IPPs, but capex funding is still not a
concern 50
Listed IPPs continue to grow market share 51
Renminbi appreciation and other forex exposure 52
Implications of depreciation policies 52
Derivatives exposure looks minimal 52
Turning Neutral on China IPPs 53
Downgrade to Neutral — Benefit from utilisation gains overwhelmed by higher
coal costs 53
Revisit when more details on tariff reform are revealed … 53
… but value investors with three-five years investment horizon may wish
accumulate due to undemanding valuation 53
Prefer quality plays upon market turbulence in 2010F 53
Change of forecasts, PTs and ratings of IPPs under coverage 54
Latest company views
China Resources Power 59
Huaneng Power International 62
Datang International 65
Huadian Power International 68
China Power International 71