【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月新加坡石油天然气行业研究报告
        【作者】：OCBC
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：35
        【目录或简介】：
To continue to outperform in 2010
SINGAPORE Sector Update
4 December 2009
Best-performing sector in 2009. The oil and gas sector was the best
performing sector in 2009, appreciating by 141% compared to the STI's
53% rise. Though there were concerns about the sustainability of
exploration and production activities because of low oil prices in the earlier
part of the year, confidence came back to the market with higher oil prices
that were spurred by a myriad of factors. Government stimulus packages
arrested the downward spiral of economic activity and market sentiment
improved. With the belief that the global economy is likely recovering (albeit
still fraught with uncertainties), the greenback weakened as funds flowed
out to higher yielding assets, supporting the rise in oil prices. The solid
long-term fundamentals of the oil and gas industry also endeared
themselves to investors.
Push for deeper waters. Stepping into 2010, we see companies with
expertise in deepwater production faring better than those limited to shallow
waters. Keppel Corporation and SembCorp Marine are likely to see greater
demand for semi-submersibles and drillships from customers, though there
will still be demand for jack-ups. The push for even more technical vessels
is likely to continue, benefiting companies that do not scrimp on research
and development. Ezra Holdings is likely to remain a favourite with its
growing subsea production segment, barring unforeseen circumstances.
Specialised vessels to fare better in OSV segment. In general, the
outlook for the supply vessel segment, which comprises anchor handling
tug supply vessels and platform supply vessels, is dimmer than the
construction vessel segment, given a possible oversupply situation for the
former with many deliveries of newbuilds in 2009 and 2010. However, as
mentioned in our earlier marine sector report (Sep 09), deliveries may slip
as some are delayed while others are cancelled.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT. For 2010, we continue to be OVERWEIGHT on
the oil and gas sector though we point out that different stages of the value
chain and their sub-segments experience different demand and supply
dynamics. As the global economy continues its fragile recovery, oil prices
are likely to remain high enough to sustain capital expenditure in the sector.
Though the credit market remains relatively tight-fisted, we understand
that the financing situation is improving. Our preferred picks are Ezra
Holdings [BUY, FV: S$2.40], SembCorp Marine [BUY, FV: S$4.16] and
Keppel Corporation [BUY, S$9.70].