【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月中国食品饮料行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：
Investment conclusion: We raise earnings forecasts
for Chinese liquor plays due to a stronger-than-expected
recovery in 2H09 and continuing demand growth in the
mid-long term. Our top picks are Moutai (upgrade from
EW to OW) and Luzhou Lao Jiao (maintain OW) on solid
fundamentals and better leverage from potential price
hikes of high-end products with increasing demand for
premium liquors. We are turning more positive on
Wuliangye and Fen Wine (upgrade both from UW to
EW). Wuliangye has taken a series of actions reducing
connected transactions. Fen Wine’s turnaround is
significantly faster than we expected. However, at
respective 2010E P/Es of 28x and 31x after a run-up of
nearly 40% in the past two months, their current share
prices, in our view, have factored in these positives. Our
price targets imply 2010E P/Es of 33x for Moutai (32%
upside) and Luzhou Lao Jiao (21% upside), and 31x for
Wulingye and Fen Wine.
Earning revisions: Strong 9M09 results of the liquor
companies proved that we were too negative on the
pace of the turnaround in demand and future growth
prospects. We increase our earnings estimates
assuming a 10-15% ASP hike in 2010, and better
volume and price increases in the long run. Potential
re-rating catalysts include clearance of a current
investigation for Wuliangye and further robust volume in
1Q10 for Fen Wine. Upside potential for Moutai and Lao
Jiao could come from larger price hikes.