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2006-01-09
英文文献:Farm debt in transition countries: Lessons for Tajikistan-转型国家的农业债务:塔吉克斯坦的教训
英文文献作者:Lerman, Zvi,Sedik, David J.
英文文献摘要:
Farms in Tajikistan currently face a severe debt crisis that has been caused by a combination of two factors typical of such situations in many countries: (a) the inability of the farms to make a profit under current conditions and (b) continued lending by the banks to cotton producers regardless of reduced payment capacity and lack of credit-worthiness. The paper traces the accumulation of farm debt in Tajikistan to pervasive government intervention in both financing and production decisions, which has led to soft budget constraints and moral hazard behavior. The purpose of the paper is to inform the debate around the issue of cotton farm debt in Tajikistan by studying the experience of other countries that had to contend with farm debt overhangs in the 1980s and the 1990s. Five CIS transition countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine) and one market economy (Israel) are studied using time series of aggregate financial reports of the farm sectors. The comparative analysis shows that the farm debt issue is not strictly a transition economy phenomenon. The problem can occur in market economies (e.g., Israel) if the state pursues policies directed toward the expansion of farm production without heed to creditworthiness of the farms and if the farm structure is incompatible with profitability and efficiency criteria. The basic reasons that led to debt accumulation in CIS and in Israel remain valid to this day, and the policy solutions implemented in these countries are relevant for Tajikistan.

农场在塔吉克斯坦目前面临着严重的债务危机,是由于两个因素的结合典型的这种情况在很多国家:(a)农场盈利的能力在当前条件下,(b)继续放贷的银行棉花生产者无论减少支付能力和缺乏信誉。该报告将塔吉克斯坦农业债务的积累归因于政府对融资和生产决策的普遍干预,这导致了软预算约束和道德风险行为。本文的目的是通过研究其他国家在20世纪80年代和90年代应对农业债务问题的经验,为围绕塔吉克斯坦棉花农场债务问题的辩论提供信息。利用农业部门综合财务报告的时间序列研究了五个独联体过渡国家(白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、摩尔多瓦、俄罗斯和乌克兰)和一个市场经济国家(以色列)。比较分析表明,农业债务问题并非严格意义上的转轨经济现象。在市场经济中(例如以色列),如果国家奉行旨在扩大农业生产的政策,而不考虑农场的信誉,如果农场结构与盈利能力和效率标准不相容,就会出现问题。导致独联体和以色列债务累积的基本原因至今仍然有效,在这些国家执行的政策解决办法对塔吉克斯坦是有意义的。
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