Morgan Stanley 7 月 2 日英文长篇，35页。
       Our Global Multinational Corporations (MNCs) China current conditions index and outlook index both declined versus 4Q17: Our global MNCs' China OutlookIndex fell to 48% in the 1Q18 earnings season vs. 62% in 4Q17 (Bloomberg: MSCZMNCF Index). This index shows the net balance of companies that have a favourable outlook for revenue from China minus the percentage of companies that have an adverse outlook for revenue from China. Global MNCs' China Current Conditions index declined to 49% in 1Q18 earnings season from 59% in 4Q17 (Bloomberg: MSCZMNCC Index). See Exhibit 1.
       By region, US MNCs had the largest decline in both China Current Condition and Outlook, while only Europe MNCs showed an improvement in China Outlook: US MNCs net balance of China current conditions and outlook declined materially to 43% in 1Q18 earnings season vs. 61% in 4Q17 and 29% in 1Q18 vs. 57% in 4Q17 (led by US IT and Healthcare MNCs). Japan and EM/APxJ MNCs China current conditions and outlook also declined in 1Q18 earnings season versus 4Q17. Only European MNCs reported a improvement in China outlook index to 71% in 1Q18 earnings season vs. 61% in 4Q17.
       Overall by sector, Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Materials MNCs had the largest decline in China Outlook: The net balance of favourable minus adverse for the Consumer Staples MNCs dropped the most to 69% in 1Q18 earnings season from 88% in 4Q17 followed by Healthcare to 54% in 1Q18 from 70% in 4Q17 and Materials to 45% from 62% in 4Q17. We highlight Morgan Stanley's UW-rated China Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Materials companies with high exposure to China's domestic market. See Exhibit 2
       In terms of themes, resilience in consumption and a stable macro environment in China were the most positive themes highlighted by Global MNCs, while rising trade protectionism risk was the most negative theme. MNCs in Materials, Consumer Discretionary (autos) and Industrials sector had the highest number of net negative mentions of trade protectionism theme.