前几天看过这份报告，今天上论坛竟然看到卖10000的，真是发指
报告不错，很详细，基本上都是最新的资料
【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月中国白酒研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：38
【目录或简介】：
Investment conclusion: We raise earnings forecastsfor Chinese liquor plays due to a stronger-than-expected recovery in 2H09 and continuing demand growth in the mid-long term. Our top picks are Moutai (upgrade from EW to OW) and Luzhou Lao Jiao (maintain OW) on solid fundamentals and better leverage from potential price hikes of high-end products with increasing demand for premium liquors. We are turning more positive on Wuliangye and Fen Wine (upgrade both from UW toEW). Wuliangye has taken a series of actions reducingonnected transactions. Fen Wine’s turnaround issignificantly faster than we expected. However, atrespective 2010E P/Es of 28x and 31x after a run-up ofnearly 40% in the past two months, their current shareprices, in our view, have factored in these positives. Ourprice targets imply 2010E P/Es of 33x for Moutai (32%upside) and Luzhou Lao Jiao (21% upside), and 31x forWulingye and Fen Wine.
Earning revisions: Strong 9M09 results of the liquorcompanies proved that we were too negative on thepace of the turnaround in demand and future growth
prospects. We increase our earnings estimatesassuming a 10-15% ASP hike in 2010, and bettervolume and price increases in the long run. Potential
re-rating catalysts include clearance of a currentinvestigation for Wuliangye and further robust volume in1Q10 for Fen Wine. Upside potential for Moutai and LaoJiao could come from larger price hikes.