One day ahead demand forecasting in the utility
industries: Two case studies
R Fildes1, A Randall2 and P Stubbs3
Lancaster University,2 Independentc onsultant, Gloucester and 3MercuryC ommunicationsM, anchester

Commodity Price Forecasting with
Large-Scale Econometric Models
and the Futures Market
Richard E. Just and Gordon C. Rausser
This paper compares the accuracy of major commercial price forecasts for corn, wheat,
soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, cotton, live cattle, and hogs. The price-forecasting
information in futures prices is evaluated by comparison. The results among commercial
forecasters are mixed, but futures prices perform relatively better on average although
not universally so. These results have important implications for operational risk
management.
Key words: futures prices, price forecasting.
Commercial

Industry Risk and Market Integration
Francesca Carrieri, Vihang Errunza, Sergei Sarkissian
Faculty of Management, McGill University, Montrial, Quebec, Canada H3A1G5
[email=Ifrancesca.carrieri@mcgill.vciah,a]Ifrancesca.carrieri@mcgill.vciah,a[/email] ng.errunza@mcgill.csae, rgei.sarkissian@mcgill.ca}
T
Traditionallyi,n tegration has been studied at the country level. With increasing economic integration, industrial
reorganization, and blurring of national boundaries (e.g., European Union (EU)), it is important to
investigate global integration at the industry level. We argue that country-level integration (segmentation) does
not preclude industry-level segmentation (integration). Indeed, our results suggest that a country is integrated
with (segmented from) the world capital markets only if most of her industries are integrated (segmented).
We also show that although global industry risk is small, it can be priced for certain industries. Industries
that are priced differently from either the world or domestic markets represent incremental opportunities for