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10月第14天
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1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
推荐：《生来2：更为简单高效的远程工作法方式》
这本书是畅销书《重来》作者的新书，主要介绍远程工作的方法，这也是在大数据时代更为简单高效的一种新的工作方式。在家工作或者办公室之外的地方工作到底靠不靠谱？作者以自身的工作经验，让我们看到了一个走在时代前端的远程工作世界。或许在不远的将来，人人都将远程工作。
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6671868-1-1.html



2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
今天继续读：《一个投资家的20年》
规划出来的百万财富

      一个主意或计划改变一个家庭的财务命运，这样的事例早已不是个案。
2011年3月18日
      3月11日，日本9级地震引发海啸致使核电站发生泄漏，据称相当于84000个当年广岛爆炸的原子弹，死亡及失踪者万余人，恐慌至今仍在继续。今年以来，新西兰发生将150年教堂震塌的大地震，澳大利亚发生有记录以来的最大洪水，更不用提当下利比亚的战争或埃及的政局跌宕。总之，世界很动荡，我们每年都会面临“错综复杂的国际国内形势”，无论是人类社会还是大自然。
      记得10年前在北美经历网络泡沫大崩溃时，友人狐疑地问：“都经济危机了，还投什么资啊？”此刻的当下，或许有人心里想2012年地球都没了，投资还有啥用？鉴于地球已不止一次地被预言毁灭后仍然完好，我们需要一如既往地认真工作，原因是
如果届时地球好好的，自己的好日子却没来。
      无论一个家庭或一家企业，在壮大财富的过程中实际上只面临两个问题：融资和投资。前者解决的是没钱时怎么有钱的问题；后者解决的是有了钱怎么变多的问题。融资是基础，投资是关键，这都需要合适的规划。
      曾经提过，很多的投资失败不是失败于投资本身，而是失败于投资规划。时至今日，很多人仍不认为思考、知识、规划、理念等无形资产的重要性。但以有限的经历而言，一个主意或计划改变一个家庭的财务状况、一年时间令财富累积超过数十年之总和，这样的事例早已不是个案。眼见原本同样的家庭，经历同样的社会条件、同样的时间，在一个周期后所形成的差距，乃至这种差距扩大至终生无法弥补，令人感慨的是，这往往源于对于财务的漠视或认真的一念之间。当下正好有个现在进行时的例子。
      一个相识数年的朋友是人到中年的北京人，一家三口，爱人是全职太太，孩子尚幼，全家靠其一人的收入维持。好在身在国企月入8000元人民币，虽然还算稳定，但每月基本所剩无几。住在其兄的房子里已10年，从10年前觉得50万元的房子太贵，住到现在300余万元实在买不起。有幸哥哥事业有成，未曾收过一分钱的房租，看兄弟如此心里不安，决意要将房屋无偿地赠予弟弟一家。
      我与其兄相熟日久，便建议利用这次契机帮助其弟解决长久的财务问题。计划大致如下，如果简单地完成赠予过户，除了多出一套300万元的房屋资产外，弟弟家庭日常的金融状况没有任何改善。鉴于其弟从未买过房，根据当今的政策，可以申请为期20年的银行按揭，而且首套可以享9折利率优惠，估计可以得到200万元的贷款，可以安排部分进行为期3年的投资计划。
      这个过程中除了投资管理者素质外，有两点需注意：一是通常为了避免风险的发生，不主张用负债进行投资，因为合格的投资资金至少有一个要求：短期不用的资金。在这个案例中，通过按揭资金的长期性作为应对。二是日常现金流的安排。由于弟家目前状况已无能力进行月供，所以月供将从按揭本金中支付。为了避免市场日常波动的负面影响，可从本金中一次性提取50万元放入银行月供账户，对应未来3年的月供支出，这样尚能有150万元用于投资。
      如果未来3年的时间能取得100%的投资回报，150万元将升值为300万元。届时可选择用200万元还清银行的全部按揭，此时弟家除了拥有房屋外，比之原本的计划尚多出100万元的金融资产，对于普通人家这几乎是项无法完成的任务。
      弟弟是个老实人，听了这个闻所未闻的方案，震惊于超过其前半生累计财富总和的数字外，额头冒汗、满面惊愕地问：这不是钻空子吗？我无语，晚上迷迷糊糊地翻了本成功学的书，上面赫然写着：抓住机遇！
…...

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
      计划，支出计划，投资计划！之所以可以称之为计划，是因为是自己可以做主的。而收益，回报则并不完全由自己掌握。看到作者上述的建议不由想起当年的机会。今天重新反思，自己也是没有做好准备：
        1.没有贷款投资后的支出计划做为让家人安心的基础，自己都没有想好为了这样的投资需要付出什么样的代价。今天改变了吗?
        2.只想到投资赚钱的美好前景，没有考虑到不赚甚至赔钱情况下需要什么样的办法和措施来保证最基本的生存（进一步的是生活）。也就是安全垫的设计。今天考虑好了吗?
        3.做好以投资的心态来过生活的生存模式的变革：不仅是自己还有自己的亲人。这是最为困难的，因为“枕边人最难劝”
     所以想起来容易，做起来难的关键是没有想深、想透。在计划的过程中反复进行心理演练，直到完全没有系统性的失误，计划才会变成一个可行的方案。当然还需要有一个眼光：洞见未来的眼光。
…...

20180928加入充实计划
昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读29小时

昨天阅读2小时，一共阅读678小时！博士的生活都说是很单调，但是实际上，如果好好读一本书，并且读的精神抖擞，就是很有趣的。读书不一定要读自己本专业内的，要广泛涉猎，博览群书，最近一直在看《曾国藩全集》，岳麓出版社的一共31册，很好，建议大家读一下！！！
告诉自己：与其焦虑的思考，不如静心的实干！

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挑战第二百二十三天   读24页书，完成当日目标

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完成了the dictator's handbook 全书的最后部分摘要。
It is an understatement to say that making the world better is a difficult task. If it were not, then it would already have been improved. However, the inherent problem with change is that improving life for one group generally means making at least one other person worse off, and that person is likely to be a leader if change really will solve the people’s problems. If the individual harmed by change is the ruler or the CEO—the same person who has to initiate the changes in the first place—then we can be confident that change is never going to happen.
We would focus on what is rather than what ought to be. We should never let the quest for perfection block the way to lesser improvement. Pursuing the perfect world for everyone is a waste of time and an excuse for not doing the hard work of making the world better for many. It is impossible to make the world great for everyone. A fix is not a fix unless it can actually be done. What can be done must satisfy the needs of everyone required to implement change.
Appeals to ideological principles and rights are generally a cover, J. P. Morgan had it right: There is always some principled way to defend any position, especially one’s own interests. It is to be suspicious of people’s motives.
In devising fixes to the world’s ills, the essential first step is to understand what the protagonists want and how different policies and changes will affect their welfare. A reformer who takes what people say at face value will quickly find their reforms at a dead end.
Everyone has an interest in change, but interchangeables, influential, essentials and leaders don’t often agree on what changes they want. That’s why so much of humanity for so much of human history has been governed by petty despots who steal from the poor to enrich the rich.
The group whose desires are most interesting from the perspective of lasting betterment is the set of essentials. More often than not, they are the people who can make things happen.
Leaders and their essentials share a preference for dependence upon a small coalition, at least so long as the coalition is very small.
At the beginning and the end of an incumbent’s reign the danger of being purged is greatest and so, at these times, coalition members should be most receptive to reform.

What are the lessons for change? First, coalition member should beware of their susceptibility to purges. Remember that it ticks up when there is a new boss, a dying boss, or a bankrupt boss. At such times, the essential group should begin to press for its own expansion to create the incentive to develop public-spirited policies, democracy, and benefits for all. The time for outside intervention to facilitate democratic change or improved corporate responsibility is when a leader has just come to power or when a leader is near the end of his life.
If firms can be made to rely on a bigger coalition they are likely to do a better job of serving the interests of their owners.
When change does happen, it can come from two sources: internal political upheaval or external threat, and between these two, external threat is far less likely to succeed in making many better off at the expense of the few.
People who live with freedom are rarely impoverished and oppressed. Give people the right to say what they want; to write what they want; and to gather to share ideas about what they want, and you are bound to be looking at people whose persons and property are secure and whose lives are content. You are looking at people free to become rich and free to lose their shirts in trying. You are looking at people who are not only materially well off but spiritually and physically, too.
Behind the world of misery and oppression lie governments run by small cliques of essentials who are loyal to leaders who can make them rich. Behind the world of freedom and prosperity lie governments that depend on the backing of a substantial coalition of ordinary people drawn from a large pool of influential, who are in turn draw from a large pool of interchangables.
Yes, we want people to be free and prosperous, but we don’t want them to be free and prosperous enough to threaten our way of life, our interests, and our well-being—and that is as it should be. That too is a rule to rule by for democratic leaders.
“The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.” We humbly add that the reason the fault is in ourselves is because we, the people, care so much for ourselves and so little for the world’s underlings.
We have learned that just about all of political life revolves around the size of the selectorate, the influential, and the winning coalition. Expand them all, and the interchangeables no more quickly than the coalition, and everything changes for the better for the vast majority of people.They are liberated to work harder on their own behalf, to become better educated, healthier, wealthier, happier, and free. Their taxes are reduced and their opportunities in life expand dramatically.

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有人会警告你们要特别提高警觉，以提防邪恶宣传的侵袭。可是你们要怎样做才能防御宣传的侵入呢？因为那些警告你们的人本身往往就是职业的宣传员，只不过他们罐头上所用的是不同的商标；但这些罐头里照样是陈旧的和不准批驳的东西！

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2018-10-14

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读426小时                          

Continue to read book "The 7 habits of highly effective people : powerful lessons in personal change " by Stephen R. Covey

This is one of the rare books that has influenced presidents, CEOs, educators, and individuals all over the world not only to improve their businesses and careers but to live with integrity, service, dignity, and success in all areas of life. It has had an undeniable impact for the past 25 years--and will no doubt continue to be influential for many more.

There is a lot of practical stuff in here, too. Challenges for you. Ways you can start to shift your thinking by taking an emotional inventory of your life and what you're doing/feeling every day. Just writing about it makes me want to go back and read it again. If you're here looking for a book that will help you harness that little spark inside of you that's saying, "You can be better" then this book is it. You're not an animal. Life doesn't condition you like a dog. This book is about the untouchable part of your human spirit that no one besides you controls. This book is about carrying sunny weather with you where ever you go, learning how much a proactive attitude benefits you, and really how sad and wasteful it is to walk through life allowing things to ruin your day. Things don't ruin your day. YOU ruin your day. You are always in control.

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昨日阅读：
1、书名：《新社会》100%；
2、讲了什么：工业社会中大企业的四类问题剖析：经济冲突、管理层与工会、工厂社区、管理职能问题。构筑工业秩序的四个原理：消灭贫困（以各个商业周期就业最大化为目标建立员工保障和企业风险保障）、联邦制管理组织（适合大型工业企业的分权及自治制度，同时解决管理层与工会问题）、工厂社区的自治性（解决员工的社会需求）、作为公民的工会（工会的职责应以社会的需求为基础）。
3、思考感想：企业组织与ZF组织同为社会的代表性机构，前者代表社会的经济基础，后者代表社会的上层建筑，双方有着互为前提、相互制约的紧密关系。
4、阅读时间：6小时；
5、累计阅读时间：354.5小时。

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昨天阅读2小时，累计阅读103小时。

今天学习和阅读约5小时，累计阅读约1100小时。
学习和投资心得：
分级基金：本质上是一只基金，它由3部分组成，一部分叫母基金，一部分叫分级A，还有一部分叫分级B。分级基金的母基金，其实就是一只普通的指数基金，跟踪的指数有沪深300、中证500等宽基指数，也有跟踪行业指数的如军工、环保等。分级母基金就好比是一个母亲，生了两个孩子，一个老大叫分级A，一个老二叫分级B，老大很保守，说妈妈给的钱我只要每年有固定的利息就可以了，老二很激进，说哥哥我保证给你利息，但你的钱我要用来投资，除了给你的利息，输赢都算我的。那么到底给多少利息呢？我们先说基准利息，一般来说，绝大部分分级基金的基准利息都是跟踪央行一年期银行存款利息，目前是1.5%，如果央行调整了，那么一般要到下个年底才调整。那这个1.5%利息是相当低的，所以分级B合同里约定在基准利息基础上再要加上一定的浮动利息，一般是3.0%、3.2%、3.5%、4.0%、4.5%、5.0%等，也就是说目前合计从4.5%-6.5%不等的利息，但也有个别品种是固定利息的，如150032（5.0%）、150223（6.0%）、150106（7.0%）等。这个利息一般是按照一年一次付息的，但比较特殊的是不是付出现金，而是付出相应价值的母基金。那么，有人担心会不会因为母基金跟踪的指数下跌，导致资产缩水，付不出利息呢？为了避免这种情况，在分级基金的合同里规定了下折。所谓基金下折，是指当分级B份额的净值下跌到某个值（最常见是0.25元）时，为了保护A份额持有人利益，基金公司按照合同约定对分级基金进行向下折算，折算完成后，A份额和B份额的净值重新回归初始净值1元，A份额持有人将获得母基份额，B份额持有人的份额将按照一定比例缩减。一般来说，当分级基金B份额净值低于0.250元时，将触发分级基金向下不定期折算阈值，其目的是保护A份额的本金及约定收益。我们假定最常见的分级A和B的份额是1:1，下折后保证下折前后的资产价值不变。比如说10万份分级A，净值1元，市价为0.9元；10万份分级B，净值0.25，那么下折后，分级B的净值恢复成1，那么份额=10万*0.25=2.5万份。而分级A的净值恢复成1，份额也是2.5万（AB要份额要匹配）,原来分级A的净资产=10万*1=10万元，现在分级A=1*2.5万份=2.5万元，母基金的资产=10万-2.5万=7.5万，净值1元，母基金的份额=7.5万/1=7.5万份。分级A的溢价率原来=0.9/1-1=-10%，也就是折价10%，那么下折后如果也是折价率是10%，那么下折后的分级A的市价=2.5万*0.9=2.25万，加上母基金7.5万，总市值=2.25+7.5=9.75，而下折前因为整个分级A有10%的折价，所以市值只有9万，通过折价市值涨了0.75万。下折会盈利的主要原因，是因为分级A有折价，下折后75%的分级A资产变成没折价的母基金了，所以分级A的折价率越大，下折的收益率会越大。如果没有折价，那么再怎么下折都是没什么利好的。当然上述例子中没考虑赎回的成本和卖出的成本，给你的母基金有两种处理方法，要么直接赎回，但现在持有不到7天就赎回将有高额的赎回费；如果拆分后卖出，那在时间上有风险。总之还是有一点风险的。但不管如何，分级A的下折还是大熊市的一抹亮色。

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