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大神们好，我最近用winbugs做了贝叶斯参数估计，但是不知道怎么看结果好不好，能不能帮忙看一下我的结果？下边是我的winbugs代码，放进去可以直接运行，求大神帮忙看一下，谢谢！
model
{
for(i in 1:N)
{
yl<-log(y)
kl<-log(k)
ul<-log(u)
sl<-log(s)
tl<-log(t)
yl~dnorm(mu,.001)
gu<-gamu/lamu*t0*(lamu*exp(tl)-1)
gs<-gams/lams*t0*(lams*exp(tl)-1)
gk<-gamk/lamk*t0*(lamk*exp(tl)-1)
mu<-log(kesi)+(1/rho)*log(sou*exp(rho*(ul+gu))+(1-sou)*exp((rho/theta)*log(pi*exp(theta*(sl+gs))+(1-pi)*exp(theta*(kl+gk)))))
}
kesi~dunif(0,2)
rho~dunif(0,1)
theta~dunif(-2,0)
gamu~dunif(0.032752,0.0495037)
lamu~dunif(0.83412,1.2304)
gams~dunif(0.0065076,0.0295886)
lams~dunif(1.2412,3.0776)
gamk~dunif(0.0176608,0.0352481)
lamk~dunif(0.38101,0.90685)
}
list(N=27,t0=14,sou=0.51,pi=0.08,y=c(0.27582801,0.30146367,0.34432023,0.39206911,0.44324258,0.49177423,0.54059943,0.5905009,0.63678208,0.68560723,0.74382565,0.80586003,0.87944029,0.96769742,1.0655434,1.1869704,1.3379469,1.5283552,1.6759071,1.8334392,2.0284464,2.221888,2.3964453,2.5823528,2.7708042,2.9619956,3.1601339),s=c(0.33956798,0.37865428,0.41304636,0.44348138,0.47633804,0.52092873,0.57070892,0.62387492,0.67806511,0.73426325,0.79247622,0.83869152,0.90789392,0.98079596,1.0679647,1.1648202,1.2625076,1.388625,1.5303758,1.6740953,1.8276698,1.8950103,2.0705088,2.2499023,2.4363878,2.6279535,2.8255164),k=c(0.27322061,0.29085701,0.31186928,0.33949485,0.37490435,0.41558167,0.46073542,0.50906568,0.56237608,0.6202921,0.68170763,0.75077829,0.82730316,0.91765087,1.0281236,1.1560834,1.3020837,1.4713609,1.6645595,1.9009789,2.1895014,2.5105254,2.8583912,3.2353533,3.6336093,4.0416011,4.4607685),u=c(0.69642407,0.73063227,0.77783791,0.88800206,0.8698982,0.90495626,0.92903797,0.98779738,1.0136139,1.0001369,1.0145973,0.99949138,0.98000222,1.0005479,0.96299529,1.0464379,1.0603403,1.0435295,1.2810996,1.2179432,1.187583,1.2110618,1.1510543,1.1360388,1.0874035,1.0425345,1.0533174),t=c(0.07142857,0.14285714,0.21428571,0.28571429,0.35714286,0.42857143,0.5,0.57142857,0.64285714,0.71428571,0.78571429,0.85714286,0.92857143,1,1.0714286,1.1428571,1.2142857,1.2857143,1.3571429,1.4285714,1.5,1.5714286,1.6428571,1.7142857,1.7857143,1.8571429,1.9285714)
)
list(kesi=0.99,rho=0.29,theta=-1.56,gamu=0.041,lamu=1.03,gams=0.018,lams=2.16,gamk=0.026,lamk=0.64)
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