Abstract:

China is facing a slowdown in economic growth potential due to at least three unavoidable structural issues: demographics, environmental costs, and changing consumer preferences. Ongoing technological innovations and reforms can partially cushion the deceleration, but a further slowdown in growth is inevitable in the coming decade. This trend, together with the financial risks caused by a high macroeconomic leverage ratio, calls for a new macroeconomic policy framework. Key to sustainable, high-quality, and environment-friendly growth in China is adoption of a macroeconomic policy framework that is less growth-centric and focuses more on macroeconomic and financial stability.

摘要：

    中国的经济增长潜力至少将受到三个结构性因素的制约：劳动年龄人口下降、环境成本以及消费者偏好的改变。尽管技术进步和体制改革可以减缓增长潜力下降的速度，但未来十年经济增速的放缓是难以避免的。鉴于经济增长潜力的下降和宏观杠杆率高企造成的金融风险累积，中国需要一个新的宏观政策框架来实现可持续、高质量和环境友好的经济增长。这个新框架应当摒弃GDP为核心的政策目标而更关注宏观金融稳定。