【出版时间及名称】：The outlook for 2010/11: Exciting, with risks (20091202)
【作者】：高盛
【文件格式】： PDF
【页数】： 8
【目录或简介】：




As has become the norm, at this time of the year
we announce our updated forecasts for 2010,
and unveil our 2011 forecasts for GDP and
inflation. Our projections suggest that both
2010 and 2011 will be rather strong years—we
now expect 4.4% GDP growth for 2010, and a
higher 4.5% for 2011. We are above consensus
for next year and, while there is no consensus as
such for 2011, we suspect we are significantly
higher than consensus for 2011 also. With
respect to inflation, we are below consensus,
despite our relative optimism on GDP.
If this is correct, the combination of better than
expected growth and lower than expected
inflation should be good news for financial
markets. This is reflected in our equity and
bond projections, and in our initial ‘Top
Trades for 2010’, also released today. We are
introducing eight new recommended Top
Trades for 2010. As usual, these are strategic
ideas that we think have high-return potential
and that reflect our major macro thematic
views, as set out here. We plan to add to the
list as the year evolves.
Given that our regional growth outlook
suggests that domestic demand in the BRICs
and the wider emerging world continues to
show strong leadership, while domestic
demand in the G7 remains relatively sluggish,
the financial market outlook is arguably even
better. To be more specific, we forecast two
consecutive years with global GDP growth in
excess of 4%, but no increase in short-term
interest rates in the US! This should be
positive for risky assets, potentially sowing the
seeds for fresh asset overvaluations down the
road. This in turn makes us somewhat nervous
about many possible risks out there, including
if the Fed were to tighten earlier than we
currently expect.