【出版时间及名称】：20091217-China H-share Banks
      【作者】：UBS
      【文件格式】：PDF
      【页数】：22
      【目录或简介】：S trong earnings with high visibility
􀂄 2010 a good year with attractive BVPS growth and high earnings visibility
We forecast the total profit of 6 H-share banks to grow 27% to Rmb472bn in 2010
(ROAE 20.8%), assuming 20% loan growth, 12bp NIM expansion (to 2.36%) and
67bp benign credit cost (vs. 60bp in 2009E). After earnings revision and rollover to
mid-2011E BVPS, we lifted H-share banks’ price targets by 19%~36%. We also
believe 1H10 should the better investment period.
􀂄 Buys on ICBC-H, CCB-H and BOC-H; top pick is ICBC-H
We have Buys on large banks (ICBC-H, CCB-H (upgrade from Neutral) and BOCH)
for better capital position, high ROE and still attractive valuation. Our top-picks
are ICBC-H for best business quality (27% upside) and BOC-H for cheap valuation
(37% upside).
􀂄 Neutral rating on CMB-H, CITIC Bank-H and BCOM-H
We have Neutrals on CMB-H, CITIC Bank-H and BCOM-H. CMB’s 2010E
ROAE is lower than 20% post rights-issuing. CITIC’s 2010 T1 CAR is seen
dropping to below 9% level after consolidating CIFH and fast loan growth.