In April 1997, Japan raised consumption tax and a promising economic recovery ended in recession. In August 2000 and again in July 2006, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, only to cut them again as the economy slid into recession. Undeterred, prime minister Shinzo Abe raised consumption tax in April 2014. The result: another recession.

There is something of a pattern here. Yet Japan is once again flirting with making the same mistake.