1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
https://www.amazon.com/Teach-Yourself-About-Shares-Sharemarket/dp/1742168485
2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Chapter 8 - Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis is essentially a bottom up approach where you look at the basic factors of relevance to a particular stock and use them to compare one stock to another. Base of this idea is that if the basics of a stock are right, it’s most likely to be a good long-term investment regardless of short-term fluctuations in its fortunes.
So fundamental analysis is a valuable tool for long-term investors, short-term investors don’t use fundamental analysis.
Determining the fundamentals
On-location site inspection is not feasible, investors have to rely on information on internet. The internet provides general or detailed information about shares. An example is a one page summary of key financial statistics for Woolworths in figure 8.1. (Here must understand and interpret every term in this figure 8.1)
Types of fundamentals
Two types:
-general
-financial
General fundamentals
Such as the size of the business, quality of governance, workforce availability, product acceptance/demand and opportunities for earnings growth. (Like a credit reference check, investor must go through every aspect of the general fundamentals before invest any money in the business on page 161-162.)
Evaluating general fundamentals
General fundamentals cannot be evaluated quantitatively, so investor have to make subjective approach by reading as much as possible and consider expert’s opinions.
Financial fundamentals
Financial information in summarised by key statistics that are understandable to investors without accounting expertise. Important key statistics relate to factors such as market valuation, earnings, dividends, debt, price value and shareholder return. Use these factors to evaluate objectively rather than subjective way.
Listed are a set of criteria called “health test” at the end of the chapter.
Evaluating financial fundamentals
-the snapshot approach
-the trends over time approach
Snapshot approach looks at statistics at a given point of time. You can compare the statistic with other shares. Figure 8.1 is an example of snapshot approach for Woolworths.
Trends approach looks at statistics change with time.
Statistics are calculated using different method and often subjective.
Statistics can lie to you and clever accountant knows how to cook the book.
Financial ratios
Financial statistics are shown as ratios. Because single value isn’t very meaningful.
Financial periods
Financial statement often published for financial year from Jul to June and also six months interim results.
Published key financial statistics are based on the most recent data FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. This is known as a rolling 12 months basis gives you information as up to date as possible.
Sometimes financial reports or reviews for last year may be referring last calendar year.
Key financial statistics
Market capitalization (MC)
Market capitalization shows the size of a business in terms of market value, that is, the total monetary value shareholders place on it.
MC = Number of ordinary shares x share price
Note the market cap is a market statistic only and doesn’t reflect the capital available for business operations.
Interpreting the market cap
The largest stocks listed on the ASX have market cap of above $10 billion and the smallest stocks have market caps below $10 million.
The core stocks in portfolio should avoid low market cap stocks (with market caps below about $100 million) because they are risky. However, if you are interested in short-term trading profit, small speculative market cap stocks might be good as their inherent volatility provides a greater potential for significant short-term price movements.
Earnings
Earnings is difference between revenue and the cost, if profit is negative, it is a loss.
Three profit figures
-profit before interest and tax
-profit before tax
-profit after tax
Interpreting the earnings
Earnings is more meaningful with a trends over time approach.
Earnings per share (EPS)
EPS=(after-tax profit)/(number of ordinary shares)
If EPS is negative, it’s often simply shown as a blank.
Interpreting the EPS
EPS is more meaningful than earnings. Projected EPS is the single most important financial factor that affects the share price in both the long term and the short term.
Price-to-earnings ratio (PE) - 投资效率。
Sometimes written as PER, it’s the ratio between share price and EPS, to evaluate the quality of investment in a share. 为了赚1块钱，需要投资多少钱。需要投资的越少越好。
PE=(share price in cents)/EPS
The lower the PE, the better the value. 多长时间回本儿，时间越短越好。
Interpreting the PE
Sharemarket PE has same meaning as the property market. A low PE means an under-priced stock, whereas a high PE means an over-priced stock. Remember the published Pes are based upon the current market price and the historical earnings.
总结：
-Low PE: value stock, high current earnings, but investors anticipate low earnings growth prospects.
-High PE: growth stock, low current earnings, but investors anticipate high earnings growth prospects.
Rule of 20
This rule indicates that fair value is when:
PE = 20 – inflation rate
The average market PE is around the fair value indicated by rule of 20. Long-term investor is suggested don't buy shares with PE far away from fair value as they are too risky.
PE growth ratio (PEG)
Published PEs are based on pas earnings and don't take into account possible earnings growth. But PEG does.
It is the ratio of the current PE to the expected annual growth in EPS.
PEG=PE/EGP
EGP = earnings growth percentage = (forecast EPS-current EPS)/(current EPS) x 100
-fair value: PEG about equal to 1
-under-priced: PEG less than 1
-over-priced: PEG more than 1
Share price and discounted earnings – 股票的应有价格
The fair price of a stock should be the discounted future earnings per share. 未来现金流折现。
Interpreting discounted earnings
Return on capital
ROC is also known as return on investment (ROI) or return on assets (ROA).
ROC = (after-tax profits per annum)/(total assets)
Interpreting the ROC
ROC is used to compare shares in the same sector or industry. You can’t compare ROC between different sectors. The higher the ROC the better. Service sector ROC very high while manufacturing ROC very low. Banking ROC is very very low.
Return on equity
ROE=(after tax profits per annum)/(shareholder^' s equity) × 100
Interpreting the ROE
ROE is higher than ROC, and ROE must at least 3% to 4% above current fixed interest rates or bond yields.
Loan-related statistics
Interest bearing loan is long-term loan provided by bank or institution, non-interest bearing loan is short-term loan from creditor, pay invoices later.
The amount of interest bearing debt capital compared to the amount of equity capital is known as gearing. Highly gearing business has large amount of interest bearing loan.
Basic rule is if the business obtains a return on capital greater than the interest rate payable on loans, then having loan capital increased shareholder returns.
Highly geared business is vulnerable to interest changes and riskier.
Debt-to-equity ratio
DE=(long-term debt)/(shareholder^' s equity)×100
Doesn't include short-term debt provided by business creditors.
Interpreting the DE ratio
DE less than 100% is conservative, 100% is limit of reasonable gearing, over 100% is becoming uncomfortable and much higher than 100% is riskier.
Interest cover (IC)
IC=EBIT/(interest payable on loans)
It is how well a business can cover its interest.
Interpreting the IC
Lower the IC, the riskier the share is.
Current ratio
This is taking short-term debt into consideration, if cannot pay creditors it is possible to be liquidated.
CR=(current assets)/(current liabilities)
Current assets are assets can be converted to cash in short term. Current liabilities are debts need to be repaid in the short term. Interest payment on the loan due this month is current liability.
Interpreting the CR
The higher the CR the better.
Dividend-related ratios
See chapter 4
3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
人们喜闻乐见持续增长的EPS，这预示着健康的盈利能力和良好的公司管理。如果有消息预示EPS增长，那么股价也会相应增长，反之，股价则会下降。一般的，股市都会应对坏消息产生“惩罚性”的波动，即好消息带来的涨幅总低于坏消息带来的跌幅。比如说，如果好消息预示股价上涨10%，那实际涨幅可能只有5%；相对的，如果坏消息预示跌幅10%，则实际跌幅可能达到15%。这是因为人们认为增长应该是常态，而下跌增会带来更大的心理影响从而带来过度的不良预期。如果坏消息同时影响几只股票，那么整个市场都会产生同向的变化。
股票估值取决于对未来公司盈利的折现，折的多就是好股票，折的少就是差股票。但未来的盈利能力是很难准确预测的，所以这种方法在现实中可靠性不足。如果一切环境因素向好，那么用专业机构计算出的估值有一定参考意义，一般散户自己计算并不提倡。
4.今日你阅读的时间量（小时计算，如0.5小时）
2
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41
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