英文文献：The Economic Feasibility of Energy Sugar Beet Biofuel Production in Central North Dakota-北达科他州中部能源甜菜生物燃料生产的经济可行性
英文文献作者：Maung, Thein A.,Gustafson, Cole R.
英文文献摘要：
This study examines the financial feasibility of producing ethanol biofuel from sugar beets in central North Dakota. Under the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007, biofuel from sugar beets uniquely qualifies as an “advanced biofuel”. EISA mandates production of 15 billion gallons of advanced biofuels annually by 2022. A stochastic simulation financial model was calibrated with irrigated sugar beet data from central North Dakota to determine economic feasibility and risks of production for a 10MGY (million gallon per year) and 20MGY ethanol plant. Study results indicate that feedstock costs, which include sugar beets and beet molasses, account for more than 70% of total production expenses. The estimated breakeven ethanol price for the 20MGY plant is $1.52 per gallon and $1.71 per gallon for the 10MGY plant. Breakeven prices for feedstocks are also estimated and show that the 20MGYplant can tolerate greater ethanol and feedstock price risk than the 10MGY plant. Our results also show that one of the most important factors that affect investment success is the price of ethanol. At an ethanol price of $1.84 per gallon, and assuming other factors remain unchanged, the estimated net present value (NPV) of the 20MGY plant is $41.54 million. By comparison, the estimated NPV of the 10MGY plant is only $8.30 million. Other factors such as changes in prices of co-products and utilities have a relatively minor affect on investment viability.

本研究考察了北达科他州中部用甜菜生产乙醇生物燃料的财政可行性。根据2007年的《能源独立和安全法》(EISA)，由甜菜生产的生物燃料可以被称为“高级生物燃料”。EISA要求到2022年，每年生产150亿加仑的先进生物燃料。利用北达科他州中部的灌溉甜菜数据，对随机模拟金融模型进行了校准，以确定生产1000加仑(每年100万加仑)和20加仑乙醇工厂的经济可行性和风险。研究结果表明，原料成本，包括甜菜和甜菜糖蜜，占总生产费用的70%以上。20MGY工厂的乙醇损益平衡价格估计为每加仑1.52美元，10MGY工厂为每加仑1.71美元。对原料的盈亏平衡价格也进行了估计，表明20mgygy的工厂比10MGY的工厂能够承受更大的乙醇和原料价格风险。我们的结果还表明，影响投资成功的最重要因素之一是乙醇的价格。在乙醇价格为每加仑1.84美元的情况下，假设其他因素保持不变，预计20MGY工厂的净现值(NPV)为4154万美元。相比之下，1000兆瓦特核电站的估计净现值只有830万美元。其他因素，如共同产品和公用事业价格的变化，对投资可行性的影响相对较小。