The Future of Economic Growth

Robert Boyer
2004

Contents
List of Figures viii
List of Graphs and Boxes ix
List of Tables x
Preface to the English edition xi
Acknowledgements xvii
Introduction 1
A shared vision 1
Beyond the myths 2
A kaleidoscopic approach 3
1 A social construct and an analytical challenge 5
Introduction 5
The American economy in the 1990s was no longer the same as
that in the 1960s 5
Combining micro- and macroeconomics, history and geography 8
The difficulty of analysing structural changes in real time 9
Conclusion 13


2 Microeconomic instability and an uncertain organizational model 14
Introduction 14
Digitalized information and redundant networks 14
The three figures of the ‘new economy’ 17
The search for an organizational model for the ‘new economy’ 19
Conclusion 25


3 A growth regime driven by information and communications
technology? 26
Introduction 26
The new and the old economies: a conjunction of two virtuous
circles? 26
The Solow paradox has not been entirely resolved yet 28
Faster potential growth: problems with forecasting 33
The ‘new economy’ has had different effects on different sectors 36
Conclusion 42



4
Genealogy of the ‘new economy’: the institutional change at the
heart of the US trajectory 44
Introduction 44
1973–2000: the long search for successors to the Fordist growth
regime 44
An early deregulation of the product market 51
Increasingly competitive labour markets 53
ICT as a way of overcoming management problems in large
companies 55
The peace dividend 57
A new architecture for economic policy 58
Multiform financial innovations 60
Internationalization underpinned internal US dynamics 62
Should other countries adopt the institutional architecture of the
USA? 63
Conclusion 64


5 The geography of the ‘new economy’: the diversity of
institutional architectures 65
Introduction 65
ICT at the heart of the technological change process 65
Pre-conditions for virtuous growth: two configurations 68
Was the US configuration exemplary or just singular? 70
Three institutional configurations 71
Is it necessary to produce ICT in order to know how to use them? 73
Conclusion 75


6 2000–2002: reassessing the potential of ICT-driven growth 77
Introduction 77
The Internet bubble: from boom to burst 77
Traders and economists forget the lessons of history at their
own peril 86
Consecutive technological paradigms do not resemble one another 90
Conclusion 99


7 The long-term historical outlook after the Internet bubble 101
Introduction 101
Overestimating ICT’s role 101
The end of three major myths 105
Inequalities within and between countries: down with
technological determinism 107
An uncertain mode of regulation 109
Contents vii
The opposition between the old and the new economy is obsolete 115
Conclusion 118


8 The emergence of an anthropogenetic model 120
Introduction 120
ICT as the vector of real-time management? 120
Moving towards a network economy? 124
The transition towards a knowledge economy? 128
In the long run: an anthropogenetic model 136
Conclusion 143


9 Conclusion 145
The future lasts for a long time 145
Behind the success of the ‘new economy’: a crisis already in the
making 145
Multiform institutional changes rather than technological
determinism 147
The geography of the ‘new economy’ actually includes the
Nordic countries 147
ICT is already a mature industry 148
The power of Wall Street instead of Silicon Valley 149
Altered competition but no return to mythical competitive markets 150
Between speculation and utopia: the anthropogenetic model 151
Bibliography 153
Index 168