【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月中国铁路运输行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：62
        【目录或简介】：
Contents
Investment Case............................................................................................................................................................. 3
Key Investment Debates................................................................................................................................................ 4
Debate #1. What’s the value of investing in China Railroads?................................................................................................................................ 4
Debate #2. How to play the railroad infrastructure theme?..................................................................................................................................... 4
Debate #3. Will the construction boom lead to overcapacity?................................................................................................................................. 4
Debate #4. Is high-speed rail (HSR) worth developing in China? ............................................................................................................................ 4
China Railroads – An Underdeveloped Industry ......................................................................................................... 5
Strong Intrinsic Demand.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Fixed Pricing – The Downside of Regulation .......................................................................................................................................................... 7
Rail Transport – A Natural Choice for the Next Decade.............................................................................................. 8
The Way to Reform: Existing Models to Follow........................................................................................................... 9
We Prefer Cargo Plays................................................................................................................................................. 11
Where Are the Opportunities? .................................................................................................................................... 12
Company Analysis.................................................................................................................................................... 13
Daqin Railway Co. Ltd.................................................................................................................................................. 14
Financial Summary: DQR............................................................................................................................................... 15
Risk-Reward: DQR (601006.SS, Rmb10.16, OW, PT Rmb15.08) ................................................................................. 16
Investment Case ............................................................................................................................................................ 17
Key Investment Debates ................................................................................................................................................ 18
Investment Positives ...................................................................................................................................................... 20
Investment Concerns ..................................................................................................................................................... 23
Valuation ........................................................................................................................................................................ 25
Scenario Analysis........................................................................................................................................................... 31
Earnings Outlook............................................................................................................................................................ 32
Financial Analysis........................................................................................................................................................... 34
Company Overview........................................................................................................................................................ 38
Appendix ........................................................................................................................................................................ 42
Guangshen Railway ..................................................................................................................................................... 44
GSR: Financial Summary, 2007-11E.............................................................................................................................45
Risk-Reward Snapshot: GSR......................................................................................................................................... 46
Key Investment Debates ................................................................................................................................................ 47
Investment Case ............................................................................................................................................................ 48