1 论文标题
《An early alarm system for housing bubbles》
2 作者信息
MeiChi Huanga,∗, Hsiu-Hsuan Chiangba
3 出处和链接（比如，NBER working paper No.11000）
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 63 (2017) 34–49
4 摘要
The study establishes an early alarm system under a threshold unobserved components model, which divides the US housing price dynamics into permanent and transitory components and links cyclical housing price returns with income fundamentals. The system provides three signs of housing-bubblevulnerability for twenty state-level housing markets in the period 1975–2011. The results uncover thatafter 1999 many states show the first and second signs, high persistence in their housing prices andinsignificant or significantly negative income-housing price linkages, respectively. Furthermore, duringthe recent housing boom–bust cycle, some states that are commonly considered to be subject to housingbubbles display the third sign, trends playing a dominant role in the variability of the housing markets.The alarm system enables us to detect housing-bust regimes one period in advance and indicates thatthe selected states experienced such regimes from 2006 to 2011