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Book of Value - The Fine Art of Investing Wisely 2016(AnuragSharma)
https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=6303889&from^^uid=109341(Page 291-297)
Conclusion
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
In investment research, there’s so muchinformation to process and interpret that anybody can easily drown in it. Numerousmandatory filings, marketing materials, third-party reports and commentaries,and the unending streams of opinions that public companies invite all have thecapacity to overwhelm the senses. The challenge for investors is to cut throughthe noise obfuscating the nuggets of data that may be critical to developing akeen understanding of an investment thesis. Sometimes, there are no nuggets ofdata at all, only a vast jumble of plausible but confusing claims andcounterclaims. The overabundance of information is not the only problem,however; acute problems arise from our emotional and psychological vulnerabilities.So, what can we do to sort through and make meaning from the vast troves ofinformation, when emotional and psychological factors can so impede trueunderstanding? How do we get to the nub of the persistent sales pitches thatfuel hopes and fears, and more? How, in short, do we invest sanely in theinsane world of investing and do so with such a defective computing apparatusas that bestowed on us by eons of biological evolution? Impossible thoughinvesting seems, there are things that we as investors can do to improve ourodds of success. Paramount for investing successfully, as I have argued in thisbook, is a cautious temperament and a well-grounded approach that helpsstabilize emotions, encourages focus on relevant facts, and facilitates carefulanalysis. Central to this approach is posing the investor as a sense-maker inan incredibly complex world of fact and fiction, with the distinction betweenthe two not always clear. Let’s review the keys to our approach. The first stepin becoming a wise investor is to define investing as a problem of choice asopposed to defining it as a problem of chance. Putting choice at the center ofinvesting tempers the propensity to gamble and to take unnecessary chances inthe hope that luck might shine our way. Even though the markets areunpredictable and prices can shift randomly in the short run, gambling ininvesting is a fool’s errand, as it invites reckless behavior that dissipatesboth energy and capital. Instead, investors must endeavor to deliberatelydeploy capital in sound businesses and do so on economically favorable termssuch that the preservation of capital remains paramount as an objective. Thesecond step in learning to invest wisely is to understand that good choices donot always mean good results. Because the strongest emotions of the momentdrive prices in the short run, good analysis does not guarantee success, nordoes poor analysis (or no analysis at all) guarantee failure in the near term.
Unprepared investors are highly vulnerable tobeing whiplashed by unpredictable price swings, entering the markets withoptimism and hope, but then quickly abandoning their positions when the mooddarkens and prices suddenly plummet. The absence of analysis almost inevitablyleads to wrong choices. Hence, thoughtful and thorough analysis is of utmostimportant for investing wisely. The third step in becoming a wise investor isto understand that, in many ways, investing is a “head game,” in the sense thatit requires considerable judgments about where to invest and when and when to stayput and how to fold. It also requires being able to see deceptions andself-deceptions that could trap invested capital. Of course, analytical skillsare critical to making such judgments; but success in investing comes fromstabilizing the mind so that we may be able to grasp the essence of things anddifferentiate true opportunity from the many illusions out there. Doing sorequires that investors invest first in selfreflection— in gaining knowledgeabout how our own minds work, how we think, how we process information, and howour moods and emotions influence the choices we make. That is, success ininvesting requires that we cultivate a capacity for self-awareness andself-reflection, for metacognition—thinking about thinking—and forunderstanding how we know what we know so that we may be able to deliberatelyregulate our own learning process. The importance of this kind ofself-awareness cannot be overstated. We are usually under the sway of a greatmany influences of which we are only dimly aware. The larger environment ofhope and fear powerfully affects how we evaluate opportunities and, absentself-awareness, can easily lead us into stunningly poor choices. Rising marketscreate optimism, for instance, and encourage hopeful valuations; fallingmarkets create pessimism, which usually results in fearful valuations.
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Constructing a robust portfolio is an integralto investing wisely. No matter how thorough the analysis of companies andsecurities, every investment thesis will suffer from unknowns and unknowables, aswell as factors that can neither be controlled nor anticipated by even the bestanalysts. Irreducible uncertainties remain no matter what, and newuncertainties emerge as the world changes. Investors can mitigate the adverseeffects of such irreducible uncertainties by constructing diversifiedportfolios. Grouping carefully selected stocks into a well-conceived portfoliois, therefore, the final step in investing wisely. Grouping companies that areuncorrelated or only partially correlated on economic fundamentals can markedlyreduce the potential adverse effects of irreducible uncertainties and unknownrisks. But this does not mean that investors should ignore the particulars andwealth-creating machinery of each company in their portfolio.
We need to beware to lose the trees for theforest. Trying to at once grasp the particulars of too many companies is likelyto make information overload a problem and undermine the ability to construct arobust portfolio. Avoiding this problem is paramount; investors must retain focuson deeply understanding each individual company in the portfolio. The final keyto investing wisely is, therefore, to form portfolios with only a handful ofcore holdings, each carefully selected using a well-constructed investmentthesis that has survived serious attempts at refutation and disconfirmation.
Investors need to consider therefutation and disconfirmation framework as resilient but malleable, andsubject to modification. Not only should we see the data in terms of the framework,we should also put the framework itself to the test. This dialectic between theframework and the data, the back and forth between the two, is the essentialway for us to make sense of the world with a truly open mind. To the extentthat the framework is helpful and leads to good choices, it makes sense tocontinue refining it to one’s personal style. When it begins to lead us intodark alleys and dead ends, it’s time to rethink or even abandon it altogether.Ultimately, investors must exercise thoughtful choice at every turn.
Refutationand disconfirmation, although encourages analysis and emphases caution, arereally about reinforcing, or acquiring and cultivating, the correct temperamentfor investing cautiously and wisely with a medium- to long-term investmenthorizon. Independence of thought, diligence, emotional stability, caution, andpatience are the hallmarks of a good temperament for investing wisely. Absentthese traits, it is difficult to apply the approach to investing that we have discussed.Without these, any manner of mishaps or perturbation in the larger environmentcan distract investors from the mental discipline required for sustainedsuccess; it can induce blind imitation or reckless gambling—and quickly undoyears of painstaking work that may have gone into building one or more coreportfolios. Hence, cultivating the correct temperament is essential forlearning to be a wise investor. Certainly, the traits that make up a completevalue investor are a tall order for most of us humans. Given our many emotionaland psychological vulnerabilities, we all fall short one way or the other mostof the time, especially when engaged in as complex an endeavor as investing. Yet,the ideal temperament and its supporting traits are something to strive for,not only so we may become better investors but so that we may continue strivingto become better people who make good choices.
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