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1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接

推荐：《好好学习-个人知识管理精进指南》

作者：成甲

被逻辑思维评为十位“全国最会学习的人之一”、“得到”最受欢迎的说书人成甲，为你解开学习迷思，讲授“学习的方法”，帮助你将零碎的知识体系打造为高效的知识管理体系，让所学知识真正变成你的资产，让学习成为你财富积累的过程！

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-5657530-1-1.html

2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录

今天继续读：《宽客人生：从物理学家到数量金融大师》

第10章   星际遨游（下）

……

        一个模型只需要一个好的想法和几个人去开发，但一个有用的工具则需要更多的人将模型进行转 化。要实现这样的转化，你需要一个图表化的用户交互界面、一个包含所有交易产品细节的数据库以及用于调校的市场数据。

      但即使是收集数据也不像看上去的那么简单——模型到处都是。人们所认为的“市场数据”通常是经过其他模型或计算过滤后才产生的。收益率是从大量收集到的债券价格中提炼出来的；波动率是从历史收益率中计算出来的。随着市场不断成熟，金融产品流动性不断提高，交易员根据更多的相关证券来调整他们的报价。有时候相关证券的数量是如此之多，以至于这些证券的价格必须通过电子报价系统才能获得。所有这些都涉及软件。或早或晚，开发有用模型的每个人都会意识到这样一个事实：围绕这个模型创建一个交易系统和风险管理系统是一项巨大的、通常还是不得不面对的软件工程，需要比宽客更多的程序员。尽管模型本身很关键，但它仅仅是故事中的一小部分。

      回到1986年，当我们开发完成我们的收益率模型时，交易员们十分愿意手工将收益率曲线输入系统中去，我自己也足以胜任完成绝大部分的模型编程工作以及交互界面的开发工作。我将系统交给债券期权交易部门的交易员后，他们立即就开始测试。

      当他们开始使用我们的模型时，我第一尝到了与“中间人”斗争的滋味。中间人就是那些指定在模型开发人员和模型使用者之间负责沟通的人。中间人——通常每个部门有一名中间人——和交易员们坐在一起，以便更好地了解业务。

      中间人完成了一个有用的工作环节。对于宽客来说，理解金融、构建模型、研究数学、编写程序，还要抽时间与交易部门紧密合作，这些并不容易。而交易员则永远风风火火，需要中间人协调他们的需求，使中间人与他们在最迫切的需求上保持一致。由于交易员和宽客使用的是稍稍不同的语言，需要有个人能够听懂双方的行话，并起到指定调解人的角色，这是很不错的一件事。

      不幸的是，那时公司里在国债部门的中间人更喜欢模型开发者躲在幕后，不要出现。有个中间人利用我们的模型为交易员计算价格，但却不愿意承认这样做过。由于公司里都是按照你对公司的贡献而给你报酬的，中间人这样做就让人感到很不好。

      在抢先这方面我所能做的并不多，但我决定至少确认一下我的怀疑。几天后，我进入程序的源代码，临时性地加了几行程序，确保有人尝试使用这个程序时，屏幕上会弹出“模型修正中”的字样。几个小时之内，我开始接到中间人的电话，问我模型出了什么问题，但却不肯承认他们正在使用模型。

      从那以后，我就非常提防那些站在模型开发者和最终用户之间的人。宽客都有那种被技术上有缺陷的人绕过的切身经验，这些人从宽客那里获得信息，并在会议上将这些信息传递给其他人，可这些会议却不邀请宽客参加。那以后的很长一段时间里，当我为交易员编写程序时，我习惯在里面加入一个能够记录下谁在什么时候使用过我程序的小程序。我估计我组里的其他同事也这样做。这使我记录下体现我们自身价值的证据，即使我不能从这样做中得到一分钱。1994年，当投资银行业被迫裁员，高盛正经历困难时期时，我把记有我们量化策略小组所设计的程序被使用了多少万次的记录复印件送了一份给我的上司们。那一年，我们小组没有人被裁员，那点信息可能起了作用吧。

……

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想

         宽客，在这本书中与交易员还是有明确区分的。交易是指具体参与交易的人。那么，当交易可以由计算机来执行的时候，交易员就会失业了吧？这也是在互联网时代，更确切地说是在量化交易时代，红马夹（或者黄马夹）会随着交易厅的消失而消失并且永远成为历史了。所以范大师的目的是培养新型的交易员：针对具体的交易标的市场进行系统设计和检验，验证的专业人员。那么，分析师与交易员的区别是什么呢？

      不问西东，不问西东，只有目标。

      重新温习杨老师的四原则：活着，跑瀛大盘，赚钱，解决问题。

      今天狗年的最后一个交易日，涨了，是因为今天钱已经只能进不能出了：出也得等到猪年开盘了。来年的大盘是什么行情呢？

……

单词挑战第2月第21天

Equilibrium  平衡，均势; 平静;

Stocks seesawed everlower until prices found some new level of equilibrium.

1.背单词1个-O

2.飞鸟式36个-O

3.CodePractices 1 hr -X

4.论坛收集资料30分钟-O

5.CloudZhuang45minutes-X

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Keep reading "Designing Data-Intensive Applications" -  Finished part 1 - Foundation of Data Systems and learned about the essential part. Start reading part 2 - distributed data which is focus on the distributed part.

1. Reading: 60 minutes - O
2. Side Project(s): 120 minutes - X
3. Code Practices: 60 minutes - O
4. Exercises: 30 minutes - O

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2019.2.1
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昨天阅读2小时，累计阅读325小时。昨日繼續读有關於经济学历史方面的文章，隨者時間的移動，学习了重農主義的经济思想，重農主义的起源在于1750年代末期，由法國的一位醫生弗朗索瓦·魁奈（François Quesnay）提出。在當時農業活動還是主要的經濟活動，而ZF的主要收入都來自於對農民的課稅。在當時稅收是一個棘手的問題。統治者不得不向國民徵稅。除此之外，還有其他方法能滿足宮廷的花銷和僱傭士兵保衛領土嗎？那個時期的法蘭西在連綿的戰爭中耗費了大量的錢財，而且貴族們需要更多的錢用於享樂，比如奢華的城堡、宴會和珠寶。魁奈認為農業是有特殊性的。人們利用自然改造出的田野、河流和獵場是一個國家財富最終的資源。因此，包括魁奈在內的那批思想家，也是第一批自稱經濟學家的觀點被稱為“重農主義”（physiocracy），意即“自然法則”（rule by nature）。重農主義者認為財富指的是土地養育出的小麥和豬。農民通過種植糧食，或售賣糧食為生。此外，他們還能生產出多餘的糧食。
魁奈相信盈餘是經濟的生命力，他稱其為“淨產值”（net product），即農業生產（總產量）中滿足農民自身需求外多餘的部分。他認為淨產值只能由人類在自然中創造出來，比如在河中捕撈的漁民、草地上放牧羊群的牧民的勞動。重農主義者認為淨產值依據自然法則會從經濟中孕育出來，這種自然法則是天賦的、始終不變的。統治者試圖征服這種法則並非明智之舉，但這正是法國君主政體在當下的所作所為。它已經將農民榨乾，阻礙了農業的發展。更糟糕的是，在農民遭到剝削的同時，城鎮裡的手工藝人和商人卻得到優待。法國制定了一套繁複的法律保護製造商免於國內外的競爭，這些法律大部分依據的是上一章中所講到的重商主義者的主張。魁奈認為，工業事實上無法創造盈餘，他對銀行家和商人更是持批評態度，在他眼中，這些人只不過是經濟寄生蟲，他們到處蠶食他人創造的價值而自己卻不做出任何貢獻。
法國農民在苛捐雜稅的負重下，穀物出口也遭到禁止，農民必須遵守規定將其賣給本國人。這種限制最終導致穀賤傷農，經濟剩餘進一步減少。魁奈敦促國家將農業從令人窒息的控制中解放出來，並廢除商人享有的特權。

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Calculation of Marginal Likelihood

Marginal likelihood is vital in comparing models in Bayesian econometrics. Here is the introduction to Chib method with Gibbs sampling.

Begins with the identity of Bayes Theorem
\[\pi(\theta^*|y) = \frac{f(y|\theta^*)\pi(\theta^*)}{f(y)}\,,\]
where$\theta^*$ is a particular value of $\theta$ and $f(y)$ is the marginal likelihood. For numerical accuracy, $\theta^*$ is usually chosen to be the mean of the sample values. The identity can be written as
\[f(y) = \frac{f(y|\theta^*)\pi(\theta^*)}{\pi(\theta^*|y)}\,,\]
The Chib method computes the right-hand side from the output of a Gibbs sampler. The terms in the numerator of the right-hand side are alreadily computed; they are the likelihood function and prior distribution, respectively, evaluated at $\theta^*$. The main problem is to compute $\pi(\theta^*|y)$.

By applying Gibbs sampling, we can the numerical evaluation of this posterior density.

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They say Rome wasn't built in a day, and yet what a difference a day makes.
有人说罗马不是一天建成的，但一天却能改变很多事。


Corporate Finance: A Practical Approach is a solid foundation for those looking to  achieve lasting business growth. In today's competitive business environment,  companies must find innovative ways to enable rapid and sustainable growth. This  text equips readers with the foundational knowledge and tools for making smart  business decisions and formulating strategies to maximize company value. It covers  everything from managing relationships between stakeholders to evaluating merger  and acquisition bids, as well as the companies behind them. Through extensive use  of real-world examples, readers will gain critical perspective into interpreting  corporate financial data, evaluating projects, and allocating funds in ways that  increase corporate value. Readers will gain insights into the tools and strategies  used in modern corporate financial management.  Equity Asset Valuation is a particularly cogent and important resource for anyone  involved in estimating the value of securities and understanding security pricing. A  well-informed professional knows that the common forms of equity valuation—  dividend discount modeling, free cash flow modeling, price/earnings modeling, and  residual income modeling—can all be reconciled with one another under certain  assumptions. With a deep understanding of the underlying assumptions, the  professional investor can better understand what other investors assume when  calculating their valuation estimates. This text has a global orientation, including  emerging markets.  All books in the CFA Institute Investment Series are available through all major  booksellers. Fixed Income Analysis has been at the forefront of new concepts in recent years, and  this particular text offers some of the most recent material for the seasoned  professional who is not a fixed-income specialist. The application of option and  derivative technology to the once staid province of fixed income has helped  contribute to an explosion of thought in this area. Professionals have been  challenged to stay up to speed with credit derivatives, swaptions, collateralized  mortgage securities, mortgage-backed securities, and other vehicles, and this  explosion of products has strained the world's financial markets and tested central  banks to provide sufficient oversight. Armed with a thorough grasp of the new  exposures, the professional investor is much better able to anticipate and understand  the challenges our central bankers and markets face.  International Financial Statement Analysis is designed to address the ever-  increasing need for investment professionals and students to think about financial  statement analysis from a global perspective. The text is a practically oriented  introduction to financial statement analysis that is distinguished by its combination  of a true international orientation, a structured presentation style, and abundant  illustrations and tools covering concepts as they are introduced in the text. The  authors cover this discipline comprehensively and with an eye to ensuring the  reader's success at all levels in the complex world of financial statement analysis.  Investments: Principles of Portfolio and Equity Analysis provides an accessible yet  rigorous introduction to portfolio and equity analysis. Portfolio planning and  portfolio management are presented within a context of up-to-date, global coverage  of security markets, trading, and market-related concepts and products. The  essentials of equity analysis and valuation are explained in detail and profusely  illustrated. The book includes coverage of practitionerimportant but often neglected  topics, such as industry analysis. Throughout, the focus is on the practical  application of key concepts with examples drawn from both emerging and  developed markets. Each chapter affords the reader many opportunities to selfcheck his or her understanding of topics.  One of the most prominent texts over the years in the investment management  industry has been Maginn and Tuttle's Managing Investment Portfolios: A Dynamic  Process. The third edition updates key concepts from the 1990 second edition. Some  of the more experienced members of our community own the prior two editions and  will add the third edition to their libraries. Not only does this seminal work take the  concepts from the other readings and put them in a portfolio context, but it also  updates the concepts of alternative investments, performance presentation standards,  portfolio execution, and, very importantly, individual investor portfolio  management. Focusing attention away from institutional portfolios and toward the  individual investor makes this edition an important and timely work.  The New Wealth Management: The Financial Advisor's Guide to Managing and  Investing Client Assets is an updated version of Harold Evensky's mainstay  reference guide for wealth managers. Harold Evensky, Stephen Horan, and Thomas  Robinson have updated the core text of the 1997 first edition and added an  abundance of new material to fully reflect today's investment challenges. The text  provides authoritative coverage across the full spectrum of wealth management and  serves as a comprehensive guide for financial advisors. The book expertly blends  investment theory and real-world applications and is written in the same thorough  but highly accessible style as the first edition.  

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Financial analysis is the process of examining a company’s performance in the context of its industry and economic environment in order to arrive at a decision or recommendation. Often, the decisions and recommendations addressed by fi nancial analysts pertain to providing capital to companies—specifi cally, whether to invest in the company’s debt or equity securities and at what price. An investor in debt securities is concerned about the company’s ability to pay interest and to repay the principal lent. An investor in equity securities is an owner with a residual interest in the company and is concerned about the company’s ability to pay dividends and the likelihood that its share price will increase. Overall, a central focus of financial analysis is evaluating the company’s ability to earn a return on its capital that is at least equal to the cost of that capital, to profi tably grow its operations, and to generate enough cash to meet obligations and pursue opportunities. Fundamental financial analysis starts with the information found in a company’s financial reports. These financial reports include audited financial statements, additional disclosures required by regulatory authorities, and any accompanying (unaudited) commentary by management. Basic fi nancial statement analysis—as presented in this chapter—provides a foundation that enables the analyst to better understand information gathered from research beyond the financial reports. This chapter is organized as follows: Section 2 discusses the scope of financial statement analysis. Section 3 describes the sources of information used in financial statement analysis, including the primary financial statements (balance sheet, statement of comprehensive income, statement of changes in equity, and cash flow statement). Section 4 provides a framework for guiding the financial statement analysis process. A summary of the key points and practice problems in the CFA Institute multiple-choice format conclude the chapter. The role of fi nancial reporting by companies is to provide information about a company’s performance, fi nancial position, and changes in fi nancial position that is useful to a wide range of users in making economic decisions.1 The role of fi nancial statement analysis is to use financial reports prepared by companies, combined with other information, to evaluate the past, current, and potential performance and financial position of a company for the purpose of making investment, credit, and other economic decisions. (Managers within a company perform financial analysis to make operating, investing, and financing decisions but do not necessarily rely on analysis of related fi nancial statements. They have access to additional financial information that can be reported in whatever format is most useful to their decision.) In evaluating fi nancial reports, analysts typically have a specifi c economic decision in mind. Examples of these decisions include the following:  

• Evaluating an equity investment for inclusion in a portfolio.
• Evaluating a merger or acquisition candidate.
• Evaluating a subsidiary or operating division of a parent company.
• Deciding whether to make a venture capital or other private equity investment.
• Determining the creditworthiness of a company in order to decide whether to extend a loan
to the company and if so, what terms to offer.
• Extending credit to a customer.
• Examining compliance with debt covenants or other contractual arrangements.
• Assigning a debt rating to a company or bond issue.
• Valuing a security for making an investment recommendation to others.
• Forecasting future net income and cash flow.


These decisions demonstrate certain themes in fi nancial analysis. In general, analysts seek to examine the past and current performance and financial position of a company in order to form expectations about its future performance and fi nancial position. Analysts are also concerned about factors that aff ect risks to a company’s future performance and financial position. An examination of performance can include an assessment of a company’s profitability (the ability to earn a profit from delivering goods and services) and its ability to generate positive cash flows (cash receipts in excess of cash disbursements). Profi t and cash fl ow are not equivalent. Profi t (or loss) represents the diff erence between the prices at which goods or services are provided to customers and the expenses incurred to provide those goods and services. In addition, profi t (or loss) includes other income (such as investing income or income from the sale of items other than goods and services) minus the expenses incurred to earn that income. Overall, profi t (or loss) equals income minus expenses, and its recognition is mostly independent from when cash is received or paid. Example 1 illustrates the distinction between profit and cash flow.  

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