1、阅读《your statistical consultant》——2小时
2、TED 成功心理学第二集——0.5小时
https://open.163.com/movie/2015/1/R/9/MAFIF8K9D_MAFKIJ3R9.html 今天分享的这个视频，主要讲的是成功的八种方法。演讲者谈到本来是给高中生要讲2个小时的内容压缩成了三分钟，听下来的感受就是，所说的8种方法，2小时也好3分钟也罢，没有一个是捷径，都是靠自己的努力来的。
有句话很有意思：“it's not always easy to push yourself, and that is why they invented mothers” ^_^
昨日阅读2小时。 总阅读时间114小时
Invest Like a Guru – How to generate higher returns at reduced risk with value investing 2017(Charlie Tian)
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6755810-1-1.html (Page 168-190)
Market Cycles and Valuations (re-read some parts) & Epilogue
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Another important parameter to observe is the overall market valuation. As with individual stocks, the overall market can be measured with P/E ratio and P/S ratio. But just like with cyclical companies, the whole economy is cyclical. During recessions, profit margins are low and earnings are depressed. P/E ratio gives a false indication of the market valuation. Yale professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E is a better indicator for the market valuation.
Daily updated Shiller P/E can be found on GuruFocus.com by using this link: http://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php. The historical mean of Shiller P/E is 16.7. As of February 2017, the ratio is at 28.6, which is about 71 percent higher than the historical mean. Where it stands now is about the same as in the fall of 2007, just before the unfolding of the financial crisis. Throughout history, Shiller P/E ratio was higher than it is now only at the peak before the Great Depression and during the dot-com bubble. Over the past two decades, Shiller P/E was never lower than the historical mean except at the time of the market crash of 2009. The ratio that Buffett uses for measuring the market valuation is to look at the P/S ratio of the overall market. Here the price is the total of market values of all the companies in the United States, and sales are Gross National Product (GNP) of the United States. Therefore, it is the ratio of the total market value over GNP. Buffett calls this ratio “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” Because this is a P/S ratio, it does not give a direct indication of whether the market is expensive or cheap. But it can be compared with historical values. Also, the revert-to-mean calculation can be used to forecast the future returns of the overall market. In the calculation on GuruFocus.com, use Gross Domestic Product (GDP) instead of GNP for sales because GDP data is updated faster. Though the two numbers have different meanings, they both measure the production levels in an economy, and their differences in numbers have been minimal. For the total market value, we use “Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Price Index” instead of the total market values of all U.S. companies, which includes all public and private companies. The reason is because we can get daily values for Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Price Index, whereas the total market values of all U.S. companies are updated quarterly. Our calculation gives different absolute values from the total market value over GNP calculation, but when compared with its own historical values, this ratio should give a similar picture and conclusion if the total market cap of all U.S. companies is used.
We can see that during the past four decades, this ratio has varied within a very wide range. The lowest point was about 35 percent in the previous deep recession of 1982, while the highest point was 148 percent during the tech bubble in 2000. The market went from extremely undervalued in 1982 to extremely overvalued in 2000. The historical mean is 78 percent. As of October 2016, the ratio stands at above 120 percent, which is about 55 percent higher than the historical mean. It is higher than it was before the market crash in 2007. Only the year 2000 peak was higher. Both Shiller P/E and the ratio of total-market-value/GDP suggest that the market is significantly overvalued as of February 2017. But the tricky part is the interest rate. The interest rate has never been this low; if it continues to stay this low, the market may not be as overvalued as it seems. Both the trend of profit margins and market valuations suggest that we are currently at the late stage of this cycle, though this does not tell us when the downturn is coming. At this stage of the cycle, investors need to act very cautiously and be financially and psychologically prepared for a possible downturn. Also, don’t forget to update the watch list!
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Over the years, we may make plenty of mistakes with stocks and lost money on many of them. The mistake that scared us the most was like when Sears at $170 in 2007 you bought in and thinking it was extremely undervalued. Then a few months later, suddenly recognized that Sears is a poor retailer and housewives never went to Sears to buy anything. When it was three months ago, the stock was traded at above $14. Now it is below $7. This made us to think more about the quality of business and built my conviction of never buying low-quality companies again, no matter how undervalued they seem to be! Then I made mistakes with good companies. I didn’t hold them long enough and missed further gains with great companies like Starbucks and Danaher. I did do it right with companies like Berkshire Hathaway, Church & Dwight, EBIX, AutoZone, and a few others.
To put what learned into GuruFocus value screeners, charts, data, and other research tools over the past 12 years. this book is sharing the lessons. I hope that even people who don’t analyze stocks full time can benefit from it. I hope that my children can stay in the right framework for investing. I do advise them to take accounting courses in college.
Finally to pull the main ideas together:
1. The risk with buying poorly performing companies is the permanent loss of capital, though the price may look cheap.
2. Good companies are those that are consistently profitable with double-digit operating margins, have double-digit return on invested capital, and are growing at double-digit rates.
3. Buy only good companies and buy them at reasonable prices.
4. Beware of value traps.
5. Don’t forget cycles.
The main point is “Buy only good companies Stick with good companies, buy them at reasonable prices, and keep learning”. You can indeed invest like a Guru.
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