2015-04 Sino-Russian Gas and Oil Cooperation 52页
牛津大学能源研究所
Contents
Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................. ii
1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1
2. Sino-Russian oil and gas deals....................................................................................................... 4
2.1. The oil deal ........................................................................................................................... 4
2.2. The gas deals ....................................................................................................................... 7
3. Russia’s motivations ...................................................................................................................... 11
3.1. The gas initiative ................................................................................................................. 12
3.2. The oil initiative ................................................................................................................... 19
4. China’s motivation ......................................................................................................................... 21
4.1. China’s energy revolution and natural gas expansion ....................................................... 21
4.2. Pipeline gas import via the west–east pipeline (WEP) corridor .......................................... 24
4.3. China’s LNG Imports .......................................................................................................... 30
5. Border price and upfront payment issues ................................................................................... 32
5.1 The Price Issue: Before Oil Price Collapse ......................................................................... 32
5.2 After the collapse of the oil price ......................................................................................... 33
5.3 The advanced payment or equity gas option ...................................................................... 34
6. From bilateral to trilateral/multilateral cooperation: based on cooperation with Korea and Japan ............................................................................................................................................ 36
7. Implications for Future LNG Projects ........................................................................................... 38
8. Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 40
Appendix 1. Central Asia–China Gas Pipeline (CACP) ................................................................... 42
Appendix 2. China’s LNG Import projects, as of December 2014 ................................................. 45
Appendix 3. China LNG Terminal Projects ...................................................................................... 47

Tables
Table 1: Projected oil production of China’s north-eastern oilfields: 2005–2015 (mt/y) ......................... 5
Table 2: Asian-oriented Russian Gas Export Projects ......................................................................... 12
Table 3: Power of Siberia line’s Three Stage Development Plan: by the MOE ................................... 16
Table 4: Projected parameters of development of Kovyktinskoye and Chayandinskoye .................... 17
Table 5: Transneft projections for ESPO Supply .................................................................................. 19
Table 6: China’s Natural Gas Production (bcm) ................................................................................... 22
Table 7: China’s Gas Production and Demand Projection, 2012 (bcm) ............................................... 23
Table 8: Gas Demand Projections 2010 vs 2014 (bcm) ...................................................................... 23
Table 9: China’s Gas Production Capacity projection: 2015 vs 2020 (bcm) ........................................ 24
Table 10: WEP Development Status .................................................................................................... 27
Table 11: Sino-Russian oil & gas trading projection: by 2030 (mt and bcm/y) .................................... 38
Table 12: Russia’s pipeline gas and LNG exports: by 2035 (bcm/y) ................................................... 39

Maps
Map 1: Gas and Oil Fields in the Sakha Republic ................................................................................ 15
Map 2: WEP Corridor ........................................................................................................................... 26
Map 3: Xinjiang Gas Grid ..................................................................................................................... 28