特斯拉一季度预计烧10亿美元，但它面临的挑战可不只这些

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_noT_z7k9u7xhnqMMhhRoA

比尔·盖茨年度公开信：一路走来的九大意外


https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/avTolJKOy5Q0wWpvMEkW_g

昨日阅读1小时，总阅读783小时

昨天阅读2小时，总共阅读820小时

1、《your statistical consultant》——1小时
2、TED 莎拉·露易丝: 坦然接受 “差一点的成功”——0.5小时
https://open.163.com/movie/2015/1/1/M/MAFIF8K9D_MAFKKHN1M.html
Sarah形如流水娓娓动听的演讲，不急不躁，聆听起来极其放松舒畅。很有气质的一位女性。强烈推荐！

我们努力为了什么？为了成功，为了达到目的。当然也有人说，不在乎结果，只在乎过程。
但又有多少人能坦然面对失败不神伤的。至少我还修炼不到那个境界。
奥运会竞赛大部分的眼光也都投在了冠军花落谁家吧。但托马斯·季洛维奇和他在康奈尔大学的团队研究对象对准了亚军上。Sarah用杰西·乔伊娜-柯西 (Joyner-Kersee) 的例子展示了，“亚军”的挫败造成的激励效应有多么的大。Joyner在1984 年 以三分之一秒的差距 和七项全能金牌失之交臂，而1988 年，她获得了七项全能金牌， 并刷新了 7291 分的记录， 之前从未有运动员能接近这个分数。用她丈夫的话说“that would give her the tenacity she needed in follow-up competition”。
“成功激励我们，然而 “差一点儿成功” 能推动我们不断追寻。
Success motivates us, but near win can propel us in an ongoing quest.
We thrive not when we have done it all, but when we still have more to do.
正是这“差一点就成功”的失败，激励着我们韧性tenacity，再坚持就是胜利。
但胜利又让人回到了起点。Completion is a goal, but we hope it is never the end.

3、整理英文——1小时

2.5小时，累计35.5小时

<br>
昨日阅读3小时，累积阅读291小时<br>
2月15日单词复习<br>
massive <br>
density <br>
hectare<br>
mutual <br>
excavate <br><br>
跨境电商是电商领域内仅剩的一片具有发展潜力、且未得到大规模开发的区域。<br>
消费者之所以选择跨境商品，主要有三个原因：质量可靠、价格低廉、网络平台方便易用。<br>
消费群体注重产品质量，海外产品与国内同类商品的价格对照，还有网站本身的操作简便性。<br>
跨境电商的难点——供应链体系。一方面，商品运输消耗的时间太长；其次，通关处理能力较弱。<br>
跨境电商的相关政策有待进一步完善。<br>
跨境电商新政的推出，可以看做是对进博会上主席宣布进一步扩大对外开放，加快跨境电子商务业务发展的政策落地，体现了最高领导人对跨境电商行业的战略扶持，有利于进一步拉动消费升级，持续稳定经济快速增长。<br>
跨境电商不仅促进了消费回流，对增加国家税收、拉动国内经济发展也起到积极作用。

昨日阅读2小时，累积阅读72小时

阿里布局线下零售耗资超700亿 麦德龙中国是下个目标

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/MORjg14Xh5jsbiHm3ZC_vw

翟天临不知的知网起底：毛利率60％，曾年均涨价两成被抵制

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/f6jE6KYQk2CTnonCAeAvJg

从研发到产品 微软是如何打造AI的

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aQTATJ4ZbDKu-TlI1eh5VA

昨日阅读1小时，2019年累计阅读48小时。继续分享《薛兆丰经济学讲义》
让人类有别于动物，长期展开迂回竞争，从而积累大量财富的原因之一，是人类社会逐渐建立起了精致的权利体系。权利保护了有效的竞争。所以我们有必要深入探究什么是权利，权利具有哪些特征。
权利的定义
要想在最短时间内以最准确的方式了解人类社会关于权利的安排，最好的办法就是读一读阿尔钦为经济学界最权威的《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》所撰写的条目“财产权利”（property rights）。
这本辞典在1987年出版了第一版四大卷，体现了整个经济学界对各个领域最扎实的研究。隔了21年，到2008年再版时，篇幅从四卷变成了八卷，里面的条目也发生了很多变动。一些原有的条目被新的条目取代了，一些条目虽然没有被取代，但也被补充了。
而阿尔钦撰写的“财产权利”条目，在1987年的版本里有，到2008年的版本里还有，既没有被替代，也没有被补充，一个字都没有改过。这就是经典文章。
这个条目的第一句话就举重若轻、扣人心弦。阿尔钦说：“产权是一种通过社会强制而实现的、对某种经济物品的多种用途进行选择的权利。”（A property right is a socially enforced right to select uses of an economic good.）这句话中，socially enforced，意思是“通过社会强制而实现”，分量特别重。
权利是通过社会强制而实现的，是别人授予我们的；不是我们自己认为有就有，而是别人认为我们有才有；要别人愿意出来保护我们行使的自由，才能叫权利。这是权利的特征。
我的思考：
1、有人的地方或者说很多人的地方才存在权利，就是社会才有权利，自己说自己有权利不算的；
2、权利会实现利益的转化。不管是有形的利益还是无形的利益，总归要有利益的；
3、权利对竞争有影响，在公平竞争的情况下，权利的介入会打破平衡。

Gucci收入首破80亿欧，LV继续“颤抖”

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IZ6_s3hGAX-ZQ5QTssFh-w

前两年疯狂买口红的你，现在理智点了吗？

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xuIHGo-ekuzrcKCzlQcULQ

特朗普的《AI 倡议》存在一个致命问题

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-WR_fFYurIqu8Q9ntbaTBg

向蚂蚁学习！六足机器人可利用偏振太阳光实现精确导航

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UOZp_E7uAm9e8QxY_v4ZqA

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/BQYLsm1KrHBGw4aOHfSNJA

狂撒130亿美金，打响2019年云计算第一枪是Google

重磅 | 腾讯教育业务布局首次公开

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/crp2pXaxBq-9bsk9MbyKXA

制药巨头强生为何愿意花34亿美元收购Auris？

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N2Y59f6AphWw3nMOHBF21A

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N2Y59f6AphWw3nMOHBF21A

安卓 things

谷歌云新CEO首次露面，抛出的“翻盘计划”是个啥

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aVXQku8W1AcW5DaYpGXolQ

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读30小时。

阿里研究院 数字经济系列报告 解构与重组开启智能经济
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6926088-1-1.html

昨日阅读1小时。 总阅读时间118小时
The business of value investing – Six essential elements to buying companies like Warren Buffett- Charlie Tian 2009
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-695143-1-1.html(Page 45-53)
The business side of investing and three buckets: undervalued, overvalued and fairly valued
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Ben Graham did was take stock market participation and suggest that it too could be approached in a logical scientific-like manner. Before Graham’s value-oriented approach took hold, the stock market was viewed as a speculative arena for the wealthy. The idea of buying a share of stock based on the business’s future earnings potential, asset values, or balance sheet strength was virtually unheard of. Instead, speculators were buying shares of businesses hoping for the next great oil field or gold mine discovery. Investors did not understand or even consider the concept of looking for cheap businesses that had high margins of safety. Graham provided an almost scientific formula characterized by intense analytical effort toward approaching stocks. The underlying premise was that a stock represents a piece of a business, and the investment approach should be rooted on that concept.
Notice the three underlying characteristics of an investment operation: thorough analysis, safety of principal, and a satisfactory return. An investment must encompass all three. Interestingly, the order of the three conditions is very important. Obviously, you first must analyze the business and figure out what it is you are buying. You can achieve this goal only through deep, rigorous analysis. Then, before you should consider how much money you stand to make, you first should rule out any possibility of a substantial loss in capital. One of the cornerstones of value investing is understanding that capital preservation comes first; only afterward should you think about capital appreciation. You see this devotion toward capital preservation in various sayings by many of today’s most successful value investors: “Preserve the downside and let the upside take care of itself” or “Heads I win, tails I lose little.” No matter how you word it, the idea is the same: Preserving your capital ensures a very high degree of long - term investment success.
Warren Buffett realized this significance when, in 1961, he wrote to his limited partners: “I would consider a year in which we decline 15% and the [Dow Jones] Average 30%, to be much superior to a year when both we and the Average advanced 20%.” Graham’s teachings relied more on the quantitative attributes of a business than on the qualitative factors. He focused on analysing the balance sheet, income statement, and statement of cash flows to get an idea of the quality of the business and of whether it was worthy of investment. Today, this approach is commonly referred to as fundamental analysis — aptly named, because it ’ s the fundamentals of the business that count the most. Without understanding the numbers, you cannot understand the business, no matter how well you think you know it. You wouldn’t purchase a home without first knowing your mortgage payments, taxes, anticipated utilities, and general cost of upkeep; similarly, never invest in a business without understanding its financial framework.
Although Graham focused his investment activities primarily on quantitative aspects, qualitative attributes sometimes can be very valuable when supplemented by a sound quantitative foundation. Brand recognition is the most obvious of qualitative considerations. The Coca - Cola Company has the most recognized brand in the world; that recognition is extremely valuable. The Coke brand allows the company to operate and compete anywhere in the world. Coke has spent decades and hundreds of millions of dollars in marketing and advertising to make its name the most dominant in the soft-drink industry. When is the last time you heard of an entrepreneurs looking to start a soft - drink company? Even with $ 1 billion, it would be virtually impossible for even the cleverest of entrepreneurs to dent Coca-Cola’s worldwide dominance. The brand is a very valuable quality, and it has created billions of dollars in value for Coke shareholders over the years. What can explain the long - term success of a value - based approach, since luck obviously can’t be the reason for so many different investors who follow the same intellectual philosophy? Piggybacking isn’t one of them, as many value investors hold strikingly different portfolios. In his essay, Buffett compared the results of several Ben Graham–schooled investors. While all of them had market - beating track records, their portfolios were not strikingly similar to one another. In fact, Walter Schloss, who, like Buffett, was an original student of Graham, was widely diversified, unlike many value investors who prefer a higher degree of concentration. During the 28 years that Schloss ran WJS Partners investment partnership (1956 – 1984), he typically held over 100 securities. Yet his annual compounded rate came in at 16.1 percent versus 8.4 percent for the S & P. And Schloss never went to college. Schloss did, however, focus on the cold hard numbers of the business and could calculate if a business was selling at a market price that was significantly below its value to a private buyer. He didn’t worry whether he was buying the business in January, December, or any other month that pundits claim is better for equity performance.
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Value investors are seeking discrepancies between business value and the stock price of those businesses in the market and seeking for arbitrage opportunities. How do we determine whether a business is cheap and an attractive investment? Although investing is part art and part science, thanks to the foundation laid out by Ben Graham and expanded on by Warren Buffett and others, determining the value of a stock is a fairly straightforward concept. Ironically, most investors stumble because they make the process more difficult than it needs to be. Let’s be clear: Successful investing requires intense analytical effort. Nonetheless, if you can understand that what really matters in determining the value of a business is usually a few data points, you are less likely to make an expensive mistake.
In looking for undervalued securities, you should focus on price only to the extent that it provides you with information to determine whether the quoted stock price is less than the value of the business. Merely looking at the stock price doesn’t do much; you have to determine what you are getting for the current price being quoted. For example, how much in earnings does the business generate in relation to the current market price of the company? How much cash is being generated each year? Has the book value of the company been rising or sitting still? Above all, is this a good strong business with future growth opportunity ahead? Let’s keep the focus on how to determine whether a business is undervalued or not.
In the short run, stock prices do not have to behave rationally. Don’t allow short - term market gyrations to cloud your judgment about the quality of the business. While the majority of professional money managers fail to outperform the broad market, numerous investors deliver consistent market – beating returns. A common thread is the business-like orientation of their investment selections. Remember to view stocks as little pieces of a whole business. Your goal is to determine whether that business is undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued. The value of most businesses usually is based on several key variables; any other information is typically noise and doesn’t add significant value.

1、文章链接：https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3481019

2、摘录：针对这一问题，《意见》中提出了诸多开创性意见，每一条落地都足对当前中国当前融资模式造成极为重大的制度层面的深刻改变。列举最重要的要点如下：

（1）建立健全尽职免责机制，提高不良贷款考核容忍度。

（2）对于贷款到期有续贷需求的，商业银行要提前主动对接。

（3）减轻对抵押担保的过度依赖。合理提高信用贷款比重。为上下游企业提供无需抵押担保的订单融资、应收应付账款融资。

（4）发挥国家融资担保基金引领作用，推动各地政府性融资担保体系建设和业务合作。对民营企业和小微企业贷款规模增长快、户数占比高的商业银行，可提高风险分担比例和贷款合作额度。

（5）把民营企业、小微企业融资服务质量和规模作为中小商业银行发行股票的重要考量因素。

（6）逐步减少反担保等要求，对符合条件的可取消反担保。

（7）授信中不得附加以贷转存等任何不合理条件，对相关违规行为一经查实，严肃处理。严厉打击金融信贷领域强行返点等行为，对涉嫌违法犯罪的机构和个人，及时移送司法机关等有关机关依法查处。

（8）贷款审批中不得对民营企业设置歧视性要求，同等条件下民营企业与国有企业贷款利率和贷款条件保持一致。

（9）将一定额度信贷业务审批权下放至分支机构。

如果上述措施能够落实，民营企业融资的症结确实将被解开，对于支持实体经济融资将起到至关重要的作用。

3、感悟：为了刺激经济增长，政府在情人节这天印发了《关于加强金融服务民营企业的若干意见》，以支持民营企业的融资需求。推出了中国版的量化宽松政策，从短期来看这种政策会刺激经济发展、提高资产价格，但同时应该预防其产生的副作用，如道德风险。

4、昨日阅读时间：0.5小时。

5、总阅读时间：9.5小时。

被流量透支的知识付费

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FHCwl89807Zo2LVfhGBYHA

业绩滑坡、资本理性，留学行业的2018年“危机四伏”?｜盘点

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hX84zZnJULiJtDi83qfJcA

演员翟天临涉嫌学术不端：预防和处理学术腐败之路走到哪里了

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cU_p65OeSz-QD-e3q9SL-g

昨天阅读1个小时，累积阅读34个小时。

从资本跨境流动来看，2018年1季度包含误差与遗漏的资本和金融账户顺差282亿元；其中非储备性质的金融账户顺差545亿美元，储备资产增加262亿美元。2018年2季度包含误差的遗漏的资本和金融账户逆差58亿美元，其中非储备性质的金融账户顺差182亿美元，储备资产增加239亿美元。得益于ZF和监管部门对外投资的政策微调和监管加强，2017年开始中国的双顺差现象重新出现。非储备性质的金融账户顺差对稳定中国的外汇储备和资本市场稳定起到了积极作用。

更灵敏反应国际资本市场资本流动异常变化的指标是外汇储备和资本外流。经管国家的外汇储备并非中国掌握的净对外汇资产，但是它反映了国家应对短期金融冲击的能力，对资本流入起到抵押品的作用，对稳定资本市场具有重要意义。2016年到2017年，人民币兑美元汇率一贬一升，外汇储备一降一增，两者的变化呈正相关。

然而2018年5月份以后，汇率变化和外汇储备变化之间的正相关关系被打破。一方面，人民币兑美元汇率贬值；另一方面，外汇储备水平基本保持稳定，维持在3万1千亿美元的水平。这显示了两个方面的信息：第一，跨境资本流动目前尚处于比较平稳的水平，尽管短期内出现了汇率的异动，但是尚未引起资金的大规模跨境转移；其次，人民人行对外汇市场的态度保持中立，坚持退出对外汇市场常态化干预的立场，并在谋求更具弹性的市场汇率。

昨日阅2小时，累计阅读586小时

昨日阅2小时，累计阅读2小时