昨日阅读1小时，累积阅读403小时

昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读621小时。

社区团购下一步：创业窗口期关闭，行业洗牌期来临

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JGu2JgDBtvQzke_4BBDCsw

手机厂商不再保

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/tnfzZAqBI2XowSlFKGg5wQ

「流量池」和「冲突」

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读846小时      
挑战第三百四十六天   读15页书，完成当日任务

最潮的科技公司 CEO 都在想什么？这是他们提出的12个关于未来的问题

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mUmOdce-VVIxBidrHmcEww

顺丰的“空战”

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/B3OKG47hIi1jbqd6On8fUQ

昨天阅读2小时，总共阅读147小时

栗浩洋：AI教育“吃螃蟹”的人

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-sOAJxJ-ATwKZIr0I6SX_Q

1、文章链接：https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3481546

2、摘录：全球央行们过去十年里慷慨的宽松政策催生了一代“僵尸企业”：那些由于债务负担沉重，现金创造乏力而本应该倒闭的公司，在超低利率和流动性宽裕的环境下得以继续茁壮成长。

然而这些对实体经济毫无贡献的表面光鲜却难掩全球增长的疲态。全球经济增速长期且持续下降、企业营收和利润持续放缓都指向一个“僵尸化”的世界。

高盛分析师Peter Oppenheimer近日在一份报告中指出，我们已经身处“增长地狱”，长期实际全球GDP增速已经衰竭至历史低位，更重要的是，对股票和资本市场中期定价有重大影响的趋势增长(trend growth)也已经放缓。

长期处于低位的利率，大规模扩张的央行资产负债表以及激进的财政扩张都没有能够扭转趋势。从欧洲、美国到日本的长期经济增长预测继续维持金融危机以来的下降趋势。与此同时，美国实际名义GDP持续走弱，欧洲和日本的情况更为严重。

全球经济增长的这种长期下滑，与利率发出的信息是一致的。尽管各国央行目前共同持有全球约三分之一的主权债务，但名义债券收益率还在持续下降。

正如高盛所指出的，“在我们历史悠久的英国，10年期债券收益率已回落至18世纪以来的创纪录低点。”与此同时，德国10年期国债收益率已大幅下跌，并可能进一步下跌。因此，不能排除名义收益率回落至零以下的可能性。在量化宽松期间，2年期和5年期德国国债收益率均大幅下跌至负值。

3、感想：全球宽松政策，使得那些竞争力不强、增长乏力的企业得以存活，这种僵尸企业的缓慢增长是市场自然选择的结果，宽松政策强行延长其寿命，不会改变其增长乏力的本质，只会带来更严重的后果。高科技企业虽然贡献了一些增长，但其同样面对着一些挑战。经济的未来应让市场通过正常的新陈代谢来获得活力，重新具有增长性。

4、昨日阅读时间：0.5小时。

5、总阅读时间：10.5小时。

昨日阅读1小时，2019年累计阅读51个小时。
做学问的基本信念：相信凡事皆有规律
当然，不是说研究了股价变化的历史，就一定能知道未来股价怎么变化，我们只是说，这些研究能否对预测股价有一点帮助。一般来说，我们做任何学问，背后都有一个基本的信念，那就是我们能够通过对事物的学习和研究，对已知现象的把握，总结出一些规律，这些规律能够帮助我们预测未来。如果这世界的变化是随机的，人类完全没办法掌握规律，那做学问就没有意义。从这个角度看，经济学家从早到晚研究价格，他们在股市上一定能够比别人知道得多一点。
但另外一方面，如果说研究了股票价格的历史就有助于预测股票的未来价格，那经济学家早就成为亿万富豪了，还有什么必要通过收取学费和接受捐助来补贴教育呢？
我的学习：
1、第一性原理，所有事项都有规律，了解这个规律才能做好事情；
2、从历史里面来研究，最主要是研究规律，通过这个规律指导未来的预测，预测准了，就可以更好指导未来；
3、多观察，多思考，做学问，要用心。

昨日阅读0.5小时，累计阅读259.5小时

昨日阅读1小时，总阅读758小时

昨日阅读2小时，第20次打卡，累计阅读49小时。

昨日阅读3小时，累计阅读44小时

昨日阅读2小时。 总阅读时间122小时
The business of value investing – Six essential elements to buying companies like Warren Buffett- Charlie Tian 2009
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-695143-1-1.html (Page 63-70)
A mental lattice, Overview of the Six Elements
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Many value investors have come across the individual components of this process. Warren Buffett’s annual reports are littered with references to a sound investment philosophy, patience, and discipline. Buffett’s partner Charlie Munger often extols the virtues of patience. The key to this framework is viewing it as a series of building blocks, or — to borrow a term from Charlie Munger - a latticework within investing. It’s a latticework because you can’t have one without the other. It’s ineffective to develop a good search strategy without first having a sound approach and philosophy. Similarly, you won’t be able to make a big bet during moments of maximum pessimism if you don’t have patience or the ability to value a business. Successful investing is not a rigid science defined by one exact formula; it is a continuous, evolving process of constant learning. The framework can’t be learned in mere months or years but rather applied over and over again over decades. Warren Buffett has been developing a sound investment philosophy his entire life. The foundation of that philosophy began with Graham’s Intelligent Investor, but Buffett has been perfecting it for decades. Charlie Munger often has praised Buffett as one of the “greatest learning machines.” A rational approach to value investing will deliver the desired outcome over a meaningful period of time. All too often, investors begin searching for the next great investment without giving serious consideration to what it is they actually are trying to accomplish. Every investor’s goal is to buy a security at one price and sell it later at a much higher price. But this goal rarely happens in an orderly fashion, and if your mental approach is not defined by a sound investment philosophy, the odds of costly mistakes are greatly enhanced. The path between buying low and selling high is often littered with bumps, and a patient, business-like approach to investing makes a huge difference.
Next we shall dig deeper into this fundamental framework, beginning with the foundation of any investing approach: a sound investment philosophy. There can be no dispute that after nearly a century of practice, which began with Ben Graham in the 1920s and has been carried on by Buffett and many other value investors, a sound investment philosophy centers around the principles of value investing: thorough analysis, margin of safety, and satisfactory returns. In this book, the term “value investing” is used to describe this type of investment philosophy. With a sound investment philosophy, an effective and productive search strategy can begin (in coming Chapter). One of the most popular questions investors get asked is: So what’s the next great stock? Unfortunately, there is no one definitive answer and no easy formula; Warren Buffett went through 10,000 pages of a dry Moody’s stock manual searching for stocks. Finding investment opportunities will require work and there are no shortcuts, but knowing what to look for will make your search much more effective and productive. Next, you need to take the raw data from the search results and turn them into meaningful facts and fi gures through the process of valuation. Valuing a business is part art and part science; no two investors will ever value a business equally. Regardless, you have to understand the business to value it appropriately. Without coming up with a value, you won’t be able to decide whether to walk away, invest, or sit still. One chapter cannot teach you everything you need to know about valuing a business. Businesses are evolving creatures, and all valuations hinge on numerous assumptions. Understanding the limitations of those assumptions is a vital component of evaluating the worth of a business. The focus of Chapter 6 is not only on how to value a business but why the process of valuation is critical.
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Once we have valued the business, the next critical step is to detach all emotion from businesses and make all buy - and - sell decisions on facts. The discipline to say no is as important as any quantitative skill that you may possess. Success in investing rests on more on discipline than simply a high IQ or razor - sharp mathematical skills. Without discipline to hold you back and resist the short – term temptation of market gyrations, the best analytical work still can lead to poor results. Maintaining the discipline to say no requires two abilities.
1. We have to separate any emotional attachment to stocks.
2. We have to always have a clear distinction between value and price.
For example if you notice a good listed restaurant group, the lines are deep, the restaurants are clean, the service is friendly, and the food is always tops. Without a doubt, it is a wonderful business with a fantastic future. Unfortunately, this success has not gone unnoticed: Shares price of a restaurant like the food quality, continue to command a premium valuation. As much as I would love to own a stake in this restaurant and ride the success of this company for many many years to come, I can’t let my love for the food cloud a rational business decision. For now I will have to continue enjoying the food and wait for a compelling opportunity. All businesses are undervalued at one price, fairly valued at another price, and overvalued at yet another price. Patience is arguably the hardest quality for many investors to develop. Wall Street, with its fixation on quarterly performance numbers, has defined patience as a period of months. Hedge funds, with their rapid - fi re trading programs, have made monthly returns the standard reporting metric. A business doesn’t succeed or fail based on the results of a single month or quarter. Stock prices, in the short term, typically behave in a way that may not resemble the underlying value of the business. A businessperson doesn’t buy or start a business with the intent of selling next month (unless offered a much higher price). As an investor in a business, your buy - and - sell decisions should also not hinge on monthly or quarterly expectations. I ’ ve been waiting for Chipotle for years; until I ’ m comfortable with the price, I ’ll have to continue to wait. A great business is not a great investment if the price is too high. Once you have found a compelling investment opportunity, act on it. Mr. Market hates bad news and uncertainty. An intelligent investor should use this knowledge to the maximum advantage. Many of the best bargains occur when businesses are experiencing a period of uncertainty or difficult operating environment. The underlying business remains sound, but the stock price continues to go down, causing the gap between market price and business value to widen. Having the conviction to make a big investment during the point of maximum pessimism requires the highest degree of independent thought and analysis. Very few investors do it, and very few investors reap the huge rewards that arise from betting big against the crowd.

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读1002小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读1164小时

昨日读1.5小时  累计175小时  

今日阅读一小时，Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness，27%->30%,累积阅读时间31小时。

20190218昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读86小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计26小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读522小时

昨日阅读0.5小时，累积阅读264小时

昨日阅读3小时，总计62.5小时

《大数据技术体系详解-原理、架构与实践》-董西成著-机械Press-2018.4

    5.数据分析层

        为方便用户解决大数据问题而提供的各种数据分析工具。
        Hive/Pig/SparkSQL：在计算引擎之上构建的支持SQL或脚本语言的分析系统。（降低了用户的分析门槛）
        Hive是基于MapReduce/Tez实现的SQL引擎，Pig是基于Mapreduce/Tez实现的工作流引擎，SparkSQL是基于Spark实现的SQL引擎

        Mahout/MLib：在计算引擎之上的机器学习库，实现了常用的机器学习和数据挖掘算法。Mahout最初是基于MapReduce实现的，现在逐步移植到Spark上。MLib是基于Spark实现的。

        Apache Beam/Cascading：基于各类计算框架而封装的高级API，方便用户构建复杂的数据流水线。
        Beam统一了批处理、流式处理两类计算框架，提供更高级别的API，以便编写与具体计算引擎无关得逻辑代码。
        Cascading内置查询计划优化器，能自动优化用户实现的数据流。采用了面向Tuple的数据模型。

C. 大数据架构：Lambda Architecture

    LA，最早为Twitter工程师Nathan  Marz提出的，一种大数据软件设计架构，目的是指导用户充分利用批处理和流式计算技术各自的优点实现一个复杂的大数据处理系统。
    （在延迟、吞吐量、容错之间找到平衡点）
    其主要思想是：将数据处理流程分解为三层（批处理层、流式处理层、服务层）

    批处理层：利用分布式批处理计算，以批为单位处理数据，并产生一个经预计算产生的只读数据View。

        （仅支持追加操作的大数据集）可以一次性处理大量数据，引入复杂的计算逻辑（如机器学习中的模型迭代计算、历史库的匹配等），优点是吞吐率高，缺点是数据处理延迟高，从数据产生到最终被处理完成，整个过程用时较长，通常分钟或小时级别。

    流式处理层：为降低延时到毫秒或秒级引入。缺点：无法进行复杂的逻辑计算，结果往往是近似解。

    服务层：整合两层的计算结果而引入（智能保证上两层最终的一致性）对外提供了统一的访问接口以方便用户使用。

Openai

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kuCoZ4D3nUnxQWIOSbgl6w

垄断、隐私和安全，Facebook 聊天平台整合计划

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UHavt0d-qh9FqPnjeLS0fw

今天学习和阅读约5小时，累计阅读约1760小时。
学习和投资心得：
投资之不易：股票投资看起来很简单，只要点点手机做出买卖交易操作就能获利，看似是件门槛很低的事。但其实要持续做出正确的盈利交易操作，背后需要一大堆极其复杂的知识、模型和相关资源进行支撑才行，也需要付出很多的时间和汗水，实则门槛不低。有点像打羽毛球，表面看只要把球成功打到对方半场且对方接不到球就能得分了，其实要成功持续做到这一点，需要背后进行无数专业的挥拍、步法、意识、合作训练和对应的身体训练才能做到。现在在往现代投资组合理论，金融行为学，未来学习的方向：资产配置的艺术，这个目前看这本书有难度！思考快与慢，这个再反反复复的读与理解中，非常同意普通人就不要学习选股了，好像还有芒格还是谁说过，一般人就选几个业绩平平稳稳的大白马，大蓝筹，长期投资一直拿着就好，或者就是指数基金，我就怎么做了，把几个大蓝筹拿个三五年，现在都后悔当时怎么不多买一点[笑][笑]，然后就是定投指数基金，etf 基金！对于投资真的感兴趣的人，应该学的建议如下：1）会计：搞懂最基本的会计原理，学会看公司财务报表。可以以CPA的指定教科书为基础开始学习。2）最基本的金融理论：金钱的时间概念，市场有效假说，现代投资组合理论，行为金融学。有空可以先去看一些相关的书籍，在本人的专栏”伍治坚证据主义“中，曾经推荐过一系列投资书籍。3）最基本的股票估值方法：绝对估值方法（DCF/DDM），相对估值方法（EV/EBITDA, PE, PB等）。明白股票估值背后的基本逻辑。

昨日阅读时间1小时，总阅读时间409小时