【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国保险行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：

Auto Ins Pricing +4.7% Y/Y in Dec, Up 0.2%
From Nov, MV Body Work Cost Up 2.3%
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PERSONAL AUTO INSURANCE PRICING INCREASED 4.7% in
December ’09, up from 4.5% in November ’09. We expect pricing to rise in
the 3-5% range, lower than the 4-9% range during the last personal auto
hard market. While Progressive, Allstate and State Farm have slowed their
pace of rate increases to 2-3% in 2009, it appears that others continue to
take pricing up in part due to higher frequency as vehicle miles driven has
ticked since May.
■
MEDICAL COST INFLATION MODERATE AT 3.4%, down from 3.5% in
November 2009, and has been declining since reaching a peak of 5.2% in
December 2007. The spread between medical cost inflation and auto
insurance premiums is positive.
■
MV BODY WORK COST INFLATION MODERATE AT 2.3%, lower than the
2.4% in November ‘09.
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SPREAD BETWEEN PRICING AND MOTOR VEHICLE BODY WORK
LOSS COSTS REMAINS POSITIVE IN DECEMBER. Pricing is higher than
loss cost trends. Since motor vehicle body work costs comprise roughly
42% of insurers’ loss costs, this should be a positive for margins. However,
we note that accident frequencies are now rising and are back to their 2007
levels, which will pressure margins.
■
USED CAR PRICING UP 19.9% Y/Y: The Manheim US used vehicle value
index is at 117.5 in December 2009, marginally up from November 2009 but
up 19.9% from a year ago. This upward trend in pricing increases loss costs
for total losses of auto insurers. Also, this could put upward pressure on
costs for refurbished parts, potentially increasing physical damage severity.
This is however, a positive for auto insurers’ top line as the depreciated
value of ageing vehicles is higher than in the recent past.
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VEHICLE MILES DRIVEN down 0.5%Y/Y IN OCTOBER 2009, according to
the Federal Highway Administration. This is the first decline after six months
on increases, and is positive for auto insurers as some had feared that
frequency would continue to rise in the near term as we move out of the
recession. It is possible the decrease is due to the impact of relatively
higher gas prices – unemployment remains flat at 10.0% in December vs.
November ’09. Both Progressive and Allstate have recently mentioned that
the frequency of accidents is now back to 2007 levels.
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STATE FARM, the leading writer of personal auto insurance in 39 states
with 18% market share, is raising rates. In 2009 it raised rates in 29 states
for an average rate increase of 3.4% and lowered rates in 7 states for an
average rate decrease of 1.7%. The simple average of rate changes in 36
states for 2009 is +2.2% and the weighted average rate change by market
share in those states is +0.90%.
■
COMPETITION IN PERSONAL AUTO INSURANCE IS ABATING. A
number of companies are raising rates.