【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月中国工程机械行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：37
        【目录或简介】：
What to invest in when
infrastructure growth drops
Property to show strongest demand for machines
Property investment could replace infrastructure investment in terms of seeing the
strongest growth in 2010, supported by stronger investment by developers and the
government’s policy requiring developers to develop the land within two years of
acquisition, in order to prevent land hoarding. Mining investment growth should remain
strong, and could surprise on the upside if oil & gas investment improves, because our
forecast is based on a conservative assumption of 2% oil & gas investment growth in 2010
versus 25% average growth in 2005-08.
Prefer concrete machines and excavators
We expect concrete machines and excavators to grow the strongest in 2010, while loader
growth could peak in 1Q10 after the peak in infrastructure investment growth. Concrete
machines have the biggest exposure to property. According to historical data, concrete
machine sales growth has high elasticity to the change in property investment growth.
Based on historical data, if property investment growth is strong enough, say above 25%,
in 2010, concrete machine growth could easily rise to 50% or more.
Excavators are estimated to see the strongest growth among all the earthmoving
machines in 2010. In the infrastructure industry, they should continue, partly, to replace
loaders. In the mining industry, excavators should benefit from a recovery in exploration
and development, and capacity expansion in the mining industry, including coal mining,
and oil and gas. They are also needed in the property sector. Overall, we expect excavator
growth in FY10 to be 25-30% YoY.
Steel cost set to rise again
With economic growth returning, we estimate steel prices will rise in 2010, which would
erode machine makers’ margins, since total steel costs (including steel plates and
purchased components) account for 80-90% of COGS in the construction machinery
industry. At this point, investing in two kinds of companies would be safer than others:
those that have strong pricing power to pass on any cost increase, and those whose
margins are higher and less sensitive to cost increases. Shantui has the strongest pricing
power, as it controls nearly a 60% market share in the bulldozer market and has raised its
sales price each year when steel price rise to pass on the cost increase. Zoomlion and
Sany have high-margin products: concrete machines and pile driving machines.