【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国管理医疗行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：128
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook: Fully-Insured Pricing Accelerating in 2010..................................................................3
Estimate and PT Changes ................................................................. 7
We are changing estimates and price targets for several MCOs..............................................7
We push back Tricare contract transition date to 2Q11 from 4Q10..........................................7
Valuation: Significant discount to market based on industry risks ............................................9
Downside Risks to our neutral industry view............................................................................9
Upside Risks to our neutral industry view...............................................................................10
2010 DB Employer Health Benefits Survey ................................... 11
Employers project blended rate increases of 7.6% for 2010..................................................11
Background and description of our survey methodology........................................................14
Regional analysis ............................................................................. 17
Positive price/cost spreads observed across most markets...................................................17
Survey results for individual MCOs ............................................... 28
Pricing outlooks show improvement across most carriers .....................................................28
Company analysis............................................................................ 36
WellPoint (Buy-Rated) .............................................................................................................36
Aetna (Buy-rated) ....................................................................................................................37
UnitedHealth Group (Hold-Rated)............................................................................................38
Cigna (Hold-Rated) ..................................................................................................................39
Other Public Health Plans .......................................................................................................40
Private Health Plans: Non-Profit (NFP) Blues and Kaiser .........................................................41
Pricing distribution and cost containment strategies.................. 42
Distribution of pricing more concentrated in 2010..................................................................42
Price increases rising across all customer sizes in 2010...........................................................43
Consumer-driven product penetration growing for 2010........................................................44
Wellness penetration to increase in 2010...............................................................................46
Benefit buydowns increasing for 2010 ...................................................................................48
Perspectives on health reform ....................................................... 50
Additional analysis of survey data................................................. 61
Health plan premium rate tables by carrier, 2009-2010 ..........................................................61
Health plan premium rate tables by region, 2009-2010 ..........................................................69
Health plan premium rate tables by plan size, 2009-2010.......................................................78
Health Reform Analysis................................................................... 86
We upgraded MGLN to Buy............................................................ 95
M&A update..................................................................................... 98
2010 Industry Outlook................................................................... 100
DB financial projections ................................................................ 112
Company valuations and risks ..................................................... 123