【出版时间及名称】：2010年欧洲保险行业前景展望
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：60
        【目录或简介】：
Insurance
2010 Outlook: Buy Life
Restructuring Plays and High
Quality Non-Life
We think macro will be less of a performance driver
for the insurers in 2010: The anticipated tightening
cycle has led our strategists to be cautious on equity
markets – with financials one of the least preferred
sectors. However, we believe that empirically it is hard
to demonstrate a clear linkage between the insurers’
performance and interest rate movements. Offsetting
the impact of equity markets, we remain bullish on credit
(which we see as still in a sweet spot across the quality
spectrum) and forecast the dollar to strengthen against
other developed market currencies.
2010 is not a normal recovery phase “buy life” year,
we think: Top-line growth will remain muted, while the
accounting and Solvency 2 risks are also more acute for
the life names – we remain selective and would focus on
life restructuring plays trading at big discounts.
Balance cheap life names with high quality non-life:
We recommend a barbell approach. Non-life plays with
strong reserves should be able to profitably navigate the
turn in the cycle as rate increases feed through to the
bottom line – we see a risk of earnings misses for those
with weaker balance sheets.
We retain our “In-line” sector view for 2010
(consistent with our strategists’ view): While valuations
are inexpensive, we do not see the requisite ingredients
for the insurers to materially outperform the wider
market.