英文文献：Testing the Predictability of Consumption Growth: Evidence from China
英文文献作者：Liping Gao,Hyeongwoo Kim
英文文献摘要：
Chow (1985, 2010, 2011) reports indirect evidence for the permanent income hypothesis using time series observations in China. We revisit this issue by addressing direct evidence of the predictability of consumption growth in China during the post-economic reform regime (1978-2009) as well as the postwar US data for comparison. Our in-sample analysis provides strong evidence against the PIH for both countries. Out-of-sample forecast exercises show that consumption changes are highly predictable.